← Group F

Group F · SWE · outside top-16

Sweden

Strength

76.8

± 1.5

Attack

79.3

0–100

Defense

75.2

0–100

P(champion)

0.37%

1.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

78.5 → 77.0 · -1.5

2023-03-31 range 76.7–78.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.37%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

16.4%

R16

21.8%

Quarter

10.2%

Semi

3.8%

Final

1.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Strawberry Arena

Solna · 50,653 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,212)

Age profile

mean 26.6 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 K. Nordfeldt €300k 36 yr

AIK Stockholm · Allsvenskan

21 caps · 4 since 2024 (0G/1A · 5.95rtg)
1 J. Widell Zetterström 27 yr

Derby · Championship

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (7.3rtg)
12 V. Johansson 27 yr

Stoke City · Championship

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.95rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.2 rtg

DEF Defenders · 8

4 I. Hien €25.0M 26 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

32 caps · 24 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.178625954198473rtg) | club 1G · 6.87 rtg
2 G. Lagerbielke €5.0M 25 yr

SC Braga · Primeira Liga

15 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.533333333333333rtg) | club 2G · 7.03 rtg
15 C. Starfelt €6.0M 30 yr

Celta Vigo · La Liga

18 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
8 D. Svensson €22.0M 23 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

16 caps · 16 since 2024 (6.629946524064171rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.76 rtg
14 H. Ekdal €6.0M 27 yr

Burnley · Premier League

12 caps · 6 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.76rtg)
24 E. Stroud €5.0M 23 yr

Mjallby AIF · Allsvenskan

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.571084337349397rtg) | club 9G · 5A · 7.41 rtg
6 H. Johansson 28 yr

Mjallby AIF · Allsvenskan

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.57rtg) | club 7G · 8A · 7.24 rtg
20 E. Smith €5.0M 28 yr

FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (5.9rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.88 rtg

MID Midfielders · 12

3 V. Lindelöf €15.0M 31 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

80 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.67 rtg
11 A. Elanga €50.0M 23 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

34 caps · 8G · 21 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.1038461538461535rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.57 rtg
19 M. Svanberg €12.0M 26 yr

VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

42 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.08939393939394rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.61 rtg
13 K. Sema €2.5M 32 yr

Pafos · 1. Division

31 caps · 5G · 17 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.525rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.68 rtg
18 Y. Ayari €30.0M 22 yr

Brighton · Premier League

25 caps · 5G · 23 since 2024 (5G/2A · 7.15440414507772rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 6.76 rtg
5 G. Gudmundsson €15.0M 26 yr

Leeds · Premier League

27 caps · 21 since 2024 (6.767469879518073rtg)
16 J. Karlström Top minutes €4.0M 30 yr

Udinese · Serie A

26 caps · 14 since 2024 (6.230270270270271rtg) | club 1G · 6.78 rtg
7 L. Bergvall €40.0M 19 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

26 caps · 26 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.432286995515694rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.57 rtg

+ 4 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 3

17 V. Gyökeres Top scorer €70.0M 27 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

42 caps · 25G · 25 since 2024 (21G/8A · 6.95rtg) | club 14G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
9 A. Isak 26 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

50 caps · 15G · 20 since 2024 (9G/5A · 7.048186528497409rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.51 rtg
25 G. Nilsson €2.5M 28 yr

Club Brugge KV · Super Cup

9 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 5G · 6.755172 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

10 B. Nygren 24 yr

Celtic · 15c/3g
21 A. Bernhardsson 27 yr

Holstein Kiel · 14c
22 B. Zeneli 23 yr

IF Elfsborg · 10c
26 T. Ali 27 yr

Malmo FF · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 0–3 @ FRA

D 1–1 v JPN

L 1–5 v NED

W 5–1 v TUN

D 2–2 vs Greece

L 1–3 @ NOR

Group fixtures

4 matches

Date	Match	P(SWE win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	H vs Tunisia (TUN)	46.9%	26.5%
2026-06-20	A vs Netherlands (NED)	23.3%	22.1%
2026-06-25	A vs Japan (JPN)	31.7%	26.1%
2026-06-30	A vs France (FRA)	13.8%	17.9%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€329.3M

Rank in the field

18 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

72.5/100

vs model strength -4.3

Top-5 leagues

50%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	8	25.2%	100
Allsvenskan	Sweden	5	22.7%	45
Bundesliga	Germany	3	11.8%	90
Championship	England	2	10.4%	55
Serie A	Italy	2	10.4%	88
Premiership	Scotland	1	5.2%	50
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	4.9%	70
La Liga	Spain	1	3.0%	95
2. Bundesliga	Germany	1	2.9%	52
Super Cup (unrated)		1	2.1%	30
1. Division	Cyprus	1	1.3%	38

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -4.3 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: I. Hien.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Sweden (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.