Group I · Matchday 20 · 2026-06-30
France vs Sweden
New-York, nan
Full time
FRA 3–0 SWE
The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.
Most likely scoreline
1–0
10.5%
67.6%
FRA win
17.9%
Draw
13.8%
SWE win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 10.5%
- 2–0 10.3%
- 3–0 7.9%
- 1–1 7.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — FRA
+0.57 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #42
- CIV #26 -2.3
- NOR #65 +0.4
- SEN #21 +1.1
- IRQ #80 +0.4
- NOR #19 +1.1
GF / GA last 10: 28 / 10
Last 5 — SWE
-0.19 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #27
- NOR #19 -1.0
- GRE #36 -0.7
- TUN #53 +1.3
- NED #9 -0.8
- JPN #18 -0.2
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 21
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2020-11-17 France 4–2 Sweden
- 2020-09-05 Sweden 0–1 France
- 2017-06-09 Sweden 2–1 France
- 2016-11-11 France 2–1 Sweden
- 2014-11-18 France 1–0 Sweden
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6.4
4.5
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
10.5
7.4
3.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
10.3
7.3
3.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
7.9
5.6
2.4
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
5.2
3.7
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
3.0
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
1.7
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = FRA goals; columns = SWE goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.44
FRA
0.83
SWE
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.