Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
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Group F · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25

Japan vs Sweden

Arlington, United States · neutral venue

Full time JPN 1–1 SWE
The agent called Japan (39%) — Better than the model call wrong

The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.

Most likely scoreline
1–0 11.5%
42.1%
JPN win
26.1%
Draw
31.7%
SWE win
Top scorelines
  • 1–0 11.5%
  • 0–0 10.7%
  • 1–1 10.6%
  • 0–1 9.8%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat
JPN win
39.3%
Draw
27.0%
SWE win
33.7%

The model's prior favours Japan (43%) based on their strong recent form and over-performance, but the squad value gap and key absences for Japan (Kubo, Machino) tilt the balance. Sweden's higher-quality attackers at top clubs and full availability offset Japan's form edge. I reduce Japan's win probability slightly from 43% to 40%, raise Sweden from 31% to 33%, and keep draw near model's 26% at 27%. Expected goals remain low (Japan 1.41, Sweden 1.13) suggesting a tight match. The most likely scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, with a slight lean toward Japan scoring first but Sweden capable of equalising or snatching a win. The distribution reflects a low-scoring affair with narrow margins.

What the agent weighed
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on tavily — 6 sources kept:
  • “Japan vs Sweden 2026-06-25 lineup news” match · 3 hits
    Late fitness or lineup changes could shift the forecast, especially with key players already unavailable.
  • “Japan Sweden Arlington weather forecast 2026-06-25” match · 3 hits
    Weather conditions like heat or rain can affect performance and match outcome.
Agent scorelines
generated 2026-06-25
Last 5 — JPN
+0.93 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #33
  • SCO #39 +1.5
  • ENG #4 +2.4
  • ICE #60 +0.7
  • NED #9 -0.0
  • TUN #53 +1.2
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 8
Last 5 — SWE
-0.13 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #30
  • POL #32 +1.2
  • NOR #19 -1.0
  • GRE #36 -0.7
  • TUN #53 +1.3
  • NED #9 -0.8
GF / GA last 10: 17 / 22
Head-to-head (last 5)
  • 2002-05-25 Japan 1–1 Sweden
  • 1997-02-13 Japan 0–1 Sweden
  • 1996-02-22 Japan 1–1 Sweden
  • 1995-06-10 Sweden 2–2 Japan
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.7
9.8
5.4
2.3
0.9
0.3
0.1
1
11.5
10.6
5.9
2.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
2
7.5
6.9
3.8
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
3
3.8
3.5
1.9
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.6
1.5
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

Rows = JPN goals; columns = SWE goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.38
JPN
1.13
SWE

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.