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Group I · SEN · outside top-16

Senegal

Strength
77.8
± 1.6
Attack
77.0
0–100
Defense
78.9
0–100
P(champion)
0.85%
2.3% reach final
Strength trajectory
75.4 → 77.8 · +2.4
2023-03-31 range 75.3–77.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.85%
to lift
Polymarket
0.6%
implied · +0.3pp
Kalshi
0.3%
implied · +0.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
17.8%
R16
34.5%
Quarter
14.5%
Semi
6.0%
Final
2.3%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade
Diamniadio · 50,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,865)
Age profile
mean 26.1 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 16 É. Mendy €10.0M 33 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    49 caps · 16 since 2024 (6.611764705882353rtg)
  • 23 M. Diaw €1.8M 32 yr
    Le Havre · Ligue 1
    9 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.371299093655588rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 7.02 rtg
  • 1 Y. Diouf €8.0M 26 yr
    Nice · Ligue 1
    2 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.2rtg)
DEF Defenders · 8
  • 3 K. Koulibaly €12.0M 34 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    82 caps · 1G · 18 since 2024 (1G/1A · 5.8rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 7.233333 rtg
  • 15 K. Diatta €6.0M 26 yr
    Monaco · Ligue 1
    54 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.653305785123966rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
  • 19 M. Niakhaté €16.0M 29 yr
    Lyon · Ligue 1
    33 caps · 21 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.036319612590799rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 7.22 rtg
  • 6 P. Ciss €2.0M 31 yr
    Rayo Vallecano · La Liga
    33 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.893717277486911rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 7.01 rtg
  • 4 A. Seck €1.5M 33 yr
    Maccabi Haifa · Ligat Ha'al
    23 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.725242718446602rtg)  |  club 2G · 6.82 rtg
  • 25 E. Diouf €28.0M 21 yr
    West Ham · Premier League
    19 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.303636363636364rtg)  |  club 0G · 5A · 6.74 rtg
  • 2 M. Sarr €25.0M 20 yr
    Strasbourg · Ligue 1
    7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.92rtg)
  • 24 A. Mendy €4.0M 21 yr
    Nice · Ligue 1
    6 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.58rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.8 rtg
MID Midfielders · 9
  • 10 S. Mané Top scorer €25.0M 33 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    96 caps · 49G · 23 since 2024 (11G/4A · 7.163120567375887rtg)  |  club 10G · 6A · 7.28 rtg
  • 18 I. Sarr €35.0M 27 yr
    Crystal Palace · Premier League
    73 caps · 21G · 21 since 2024 (8G/2A · 7.757377049180328rtg)  |  club 9G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
  • 5 I. Gueye €1.0M 36 yr
    Everton · Premier League
    103 caps · 5G · 23 since 2024 (5G/1A · 7.193406593406594rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 6.79 rtg
  • 26 P. Gueye €6.0M 26 yr
    Villarreal · La Liga
    44 caps · 7G · 22 since 2024 (6G/2A · 6.88421052631579rtg)  |  club 5G · 2A · 7.12 rtg
  • 8 L. Camara €30.0M 21 yr
    Monaco · Ligue 1
    44 caps · 6G · 24 since 2024 (6G/2A · 6.5864406779661016rtg)  |  club 3G · 4A · 7.16 rtg
  • 13 I. Ndiaye Top minutes €45.0M 25 yr
    Everton · Premier League
    40 caps · 4G · 23 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.914507772020725rtg)  |  club 6G · 3A · 6.88 rtg
  • 17 P. Sarr €35.0M 23 yr
    Tottenham · Premier League
    38 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.406818181818181rtg)  |  club 2G · 4A · 6.82 rtg
  • 14 I. Jakobs €6.0M 26 yr
    Galatasaray · Süper Lig
    33 caps · 17 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.592045454545455rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.73 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 6
  • 11 N. Jackson €45.0M 24 yr
    Bayern München · Bundesliga
    34 caps · 4G · 23 since 2024 (4G/3A · 6.360273972602739rtg)  |  club 8G · 1A · 6.77 rtg
  • 21 H. Diarra €32.0M 21 yr
    Sunderland · Premier League
    22 caps · 6G · 20 since 2024 (6G/2A · 7.155813953488372rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.72 rtg
  • 9 B. Dieng €4.0M 25 yr
    Lorient · Ligue 1
    26 caps · 3G · 5 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.324390243902439rtg)  |  club 10G · 1A · 6.81 rtg
  • 12 C. Ndiaye €3.5M 30 yr
    Samsunspor · Süper Lig
    16 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.74rtg)  |  club 7G · 1A · 6.72 rtg
  • 20 I. Mbaye €25.0M 17 yr
    Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
    14 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.772258064516129rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.77 rtg
  • 7 Assane Diao €12.0M 20 yr
    Como · Serie A
    15 caps · 13 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.383720930232558rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.74 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
MID · additional
  • 22 Bara Ndiaye 18 yr
    Bayern München · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 2–3 @ BEL
W 5–0 v IRQ
L 2–3 v NOR
L 1–3 v FRA
D 0–0 @ KSA
L 2–3 @ USA

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(SEN win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-16 A vs France (FRA) 19.7% 26.3%
2026-06-22 A vs Norway (NOR) 34.7% 26.6%
2026-06-26 H vs Iraq (IRQ) 60.0% 25.1%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€439.0M
Rank in the field
12 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
80.2/100
vs model strength +2.4
Top-5 leagues
76%
Unrated leagues
6%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Ligue 1 France 9 35.5% 80
Premier League England 6 27.0% 100
Pro League Saudi-Arabia 2 9.4% 60
La Liga Spain 2 8.9% 95
Süper Lig Turkey 2 5.9% 60
King's Cup (unrated) 1 5.6% 30
Ligat Ha'al Israel 1 3.0% 45
Bundesliga Germany 2 2.5% 90
Serie A Italy 1 2.3% 88

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +2.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: É. Mendy, É. Mendy.

Sources

5 verified outlets for Senegal (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.