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Group I · Matchday 6 · 2026-06-16

France vs Senegal

East Rutherford, United States · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline
1–0 16.4%
50.3%
FRA win
28.6%
Draw
21.1%
SEN win
Top scorelines
  • 1–0 16.4%
  • 0–0 15.4%
  • 2–0 10.5%
  • 1–1 10.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat
FRA win
61.7%
Draw
23.7%
SEN win
14.7%

The model's prior (50% France win) is a reasonable starting point, but the squad market value gap (France 2nd, Senegal 12th) and recent form (France in line, Senegal underperforming) indicate France's talent edge is stronger than the model captures. Key players like Mbappé and Olise give France a clear attacking advantage, while Senegal's key attacker Mané is past his peak. No injuries or conditions offset this. I raise France's win probability to 60%, lowering draw and away win accordingly. France's expected goals (1.36) and Senegal's (0.72) suggest a low-scoring match, but France's superior attack should generate multiple chances. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 and 2-0, with 2-1 also plausible if Senegal's defense cracks. A draw (0-0 or 1-1) is possible but less likely given France's form and talent edge.

What the agent weighed
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on tavily — 9 sources kept:
  • “France vs Senegal 2026-06-16 team news injuries suspensions” match · 3 hits
    Late fitness updates or suspensions could significantly shift the match forecast.
  • “France squad 2026 June injuries” FRA · 3 hits
    Key player absences (e.g., Mbappé, Griezmann) would alter France's strength.
  • “Senegal squad 2026 June injuries Sadio Mane” SEN · 3 hits
    Sadio Mané's availability is crucial for Senegal's attacking threat.
Agent scorelines
generated 2026-06-16
Last 5 — FRA
+0.11 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #45
  • AZE #116 +0.3
  • BRA #3 +1.8
  • COL #8 +1.5
  • CIV #30 -2.2
  • NOR #67 +0.5
GF / GA last 10: 25 / 9
Last 5 — SEN
-0.38 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #49
  • MAR #11 -0.9
  • PER #42 +1.4
  • GAM #88 +0.5
  • USA #35 -1.4
  • KSA #69 -0.7
GF / GA last 10: 16 / 9
Head-to-head (last 5)
  • 2002-05-31 France 0–1 Senegal
  • 1963-04-18 Senegal 2–0 France
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15.4
9.6
3.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
16.4
10.3
3.9
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
10.5
6.6
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
5.3
3.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
2.3
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Rows = FRA goals; columns = SEN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.36
FRA
0.72
SEN

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.