Senegal vs Iraq

The statistical model already gives Senegal a strong 55% win probability, and the squad market value gap (Senegal 77th percentile vs Iraq 2nd percentile) is a massive independent signal that the model may understate due to Senegal's recent underperformance. Senegal's key players are far superior and play at higher club levels. The only counterweight is Senegal's poor recent form and the absence of GK É. Mendy, but these are insufficient to overcome the talent chasm. I increase Senegal's win probability to 70%, reducing draw and Iraq win accordingly. Senegal's expected goals (1.47) and Iraq's (0.61) suggest a low-scoring game tilted toward Senegal. The talent gap should produce more chances for Senegal, but Iraq's defensive setup and Senegal's recent scoring struggles (2 goals in last 5 matches) cap the total. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 and 1-0, with 2-1 and 3-0 also plausible. Draws like 1-1 or 0-0 are possible but less likely given the quality disparity.

• Recent form
  Senegal recent form WLDLL, -0.90 pts/match vs expectation vs avg opponent rank #44; Iraq WDLLL, -0.31 pts/match vs expectation vs avg opponent rank #48. → favours Senegal slightly (Iraq's form is worse in absolute terms, but Senegal's underperformance is more pronounced; net neutral to slight Senegal lean)
• Head-to-head
  No previous meetings between Senegal and Iraq. → no bearing
• Squad market value
  Senegal ranks 12th of 48 (77th percentile), Iraq ranks 47th of 48 (2nd percentile); Senegal's squad is ~27.5x more valuable. → strongly favours Senegal
• Key players
  Senegal's key players: S. Mané (94 caps, recent 21 apps 11G/4A, Al-Nassr), I. Sarr (71 caps, recent 19 apps 6G/1A, Crystal Palace), L. Camara (42 caps, recent 22 apps 6G/1A, Monaco), I. Gueye (101 caps, recent 21 apps 5G/1A, Everton), P. Gueye (42 caps, recent 20 apps 4G/1A, Villarreal). Iraq's key players: Aymen Hussein (75 caps, recent 27 apps 7G/1A), Ibraheem Bayesh (94 caps, recent 56 apps 7G/3A, Al Riyadh), Youssef Amyn (56 caps, recent 52 apps 5G/3A), Kevin Yakob (28 caps, recent 27 apps 3G/3A, Aarhus), Amir Al Ammari (72 caps, recent 54 apps 2G/6A, Cracovia Krakow). → favours Senegal (higher quality and more prolific players at top clubs)
• Availability / injuries
  Senegal's goalkeeper É. Mendy is unavailable per API-Football (2026-06-26). → slightly weakens Senegal (first-choice GK out)
• Recent news
  Senegal news: coach non-committal on changes vs Norway (Bozeman Daily Chronicle); Norway vs Senegal coverage (NY Post); France vs Senegal (NY Post). Iraq news: squad and fixtures (Yahoo Sports); Iraq vs Norway 4-1 loss (Bozeman Daily Chronicle); Norway tops Iraq 4-1 (Bozeman Daily Chronicle). No direct news about this specific match. → no bearing (no specific injury or tactical news for this fixture)
• Match-day conditions
  BMO Field: 19.3°C, overcast, humidity 87%, wind 14.4 km/h, no precipitation. Mild conditions, no extreme heat or altitude; roof is open but weather is benign. → no bearing (neutral conditions, no advantage to either side)
• Model vs market
  Statistical model gives Senegal 55% win, draw 28%, Iraq 17%; expected goals 1.47 vs 0.61. No betting market lines supplied. → favours Senegal (model already rates Senegal heavily)

• 1–0 22%
• 2–0 21%
• 2–1 13%
• 1–1 12%
• 3–0 11%
• 0–0 11%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.