← Group G

Group G · IRN · outside top-16

Iran

Strength

75.7

± 2.1

Attack

74.1

0–100

Defense

77.7

0–100

P(champion)

0.57%

1.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

76.4 → 76.2 · -0.2

2023-03-31 range 75.7–76.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.57%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.5pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

20.1%

R16

37.5%

Quarter

14.5%

Semi

5.1%

Final

1.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Azadi Stadium

Tehran · 78,116 seats (WC avg 55,865; +22,251)

Age profile

mean 29.4 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 A. Beiranvand €1.2M 33 yr

Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League

82 caps · 20 since 2024 (7.666666666666667rtg)
22 H. Hosseini €2.2M 33 yr

Sepahan FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

11 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
12 P. Niazmand €750k 30 yr

Persepolis FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

8 caps · 4 since 2024

DEF Defenders · 7

3 E. Hajisafi 35 yr

—

121 caps · 5G · 6 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.754945054945056rtg)
5 M. Mohammadi €1.3M 32 yr

Persepolis FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

74 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.591176470588235rtg) | club 0G · 3A
4 S. Khalilzadeh 36 yr

—

55 caps · 2G · 22 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.166666666666667rtg)
13 H. Kanani 31 yr

—

48 caps · 4G · 4 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.1rtg)
2 Saleh Hardani 27 yr

—

16 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.0rtg)
19 A. Nemati 29 yr

—
25 D. Eiri 21 yr

—

MID Midfielders · 10

7 A. Jahanbakhsh €3.0M 32 yr

Dender · Jupiler Pro League

93 caps · 16G · 16 since 2024 (16G/0A · 6.390566037735849rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
23 R. Rezaeian €450k 35 yr

Foolad FC · Persian Gulf Pro League

71 caps · 8G · 11 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.6rtg) | club 0G · 2A
6 S. Ezatolahi 29 yr

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Pro League

81 caps · 1G · 22 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.1 rtg
14 S. Ghoddos €2.0M 32 yr

Al-Ittihad Kalba · League Cup

65 caps · 3G · 22 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.680568720379147rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 7.4 rtg
16 M. Torabi 31 yr

Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League

50 caps · 7G · 7 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.599999999999999rtg)
8 M. Mohebi €3.5M 27 yr

FC Rostov · Premier League

28 caps · 11G · 13 since 2024 (6G/0A · 6.886938775510204rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 6.57 rtg
15 R. Cheshmi 32 yr

—

36 caps · 3G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg)
21 M. Ghorbani €800k 24 yr

Al Wahda FC · Pro League

12 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.7rtg)

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 6

9 M. Taremi Top scorer €2.5M 33 yr

Olympiakos Piraeus · Super League 1

101 caps · 51G · 24 since 2024 (7G/4A · 6.588461538461538rtg) | club 10G · 2A · 7.07 rtg
20 S. Moghanlou €900k 31 yr

Al-Ittihad Kalba · League Cup

23 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.951724137931035rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 7.189473 rtg
18 A. Hosseinzadeh €700k 25 yr

Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League

14 caps · 2G · 10 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.595238095238095rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.795454 rtg
11 A. Alipour €1.0M 30 yr

—

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
24 D. Eckert Ayensa Top minutes 28 yr

Standard Liege · Jupiler Pro League

| club 5G · 6.63 rtg
10 M. Ghaedi 27 yr

—

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

17 A. Yousefi 23 yr

Sepahan FC · 8c
26 A. Razzaghinia 19 yr

Esteghlal FC · 1c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 v EGY

D 0–0 v BEL

D 2–2 v NZL

W 2–0 vs Mali

W 3–1 v Gambia

W 5–0 v Costa Rica

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(IRN win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	H vs New Zealand (NZL)	59.6%	25.6%
2026-06-21	A vs Belgium (BEL)	20.8%	25.6%
2026-06-26	A vs Egypt (EGY)	33.9%	32.8%

What the squad is worth

16 of 25 valued

Squad market value

€24.1M

Rank in the field

45 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

9 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

48.2/100

vs model strength -27.5

Top-5 leagues

Unrated leagues

25%

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	2	27.3%	65
League Cup (unrated)		2	24.9%	30
Premier League	Russia	1	15.3%	55
Super League 1	Greece	1	11.9%	55
Persian Gulf Pro League	Iran	1	10.4%	38
Pro League	United-Arab-Emirates	2	10.3%	40

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -27.5 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Iran (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.