Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← Group G
Group G · IRN · outside top-16

Iran

Strength
76.7
± 2.1
Attack
75.5
0–100
Defense
76.9
0–100
P(champion)
0.57%
1.8% reach final
Strength trajectory
77.1 → 76.9 · -0.2
2023-03-31 range 76.4–77.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.57%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · +0.5pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · +0.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.1%
R16
37.5%
Quarter
14.5%
Semi
5.1%
Final
1.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Azadi Stadium
Tehran · 78,116 seats (WC avg 55,865; +22,251)
Age profile
mean 29.4 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 A. Beiranvand €1.2M 33 yr
    Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League
    80 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
  • 22 H. Hosseini €2.2M 33 yr
    Sepahan FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    11 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
  • 12 P. Niazmand €750k 30 yr
    Persepolis FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    8 caps · 4 since 2024
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 3 E. Hajisafi 35 yr
    —
    120 caps · 5G · 5 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.9rtg)
  • 23 R. Rezaeian €450k 35 yr
    Foolad FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    69 caps · 7G · 9 since 2024 (3G/1A · 9.3rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A
  • 5 M. Mohammadi €1.3M 32 yr
    Persepolis FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    72 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.2rtg)  |  club 0G · 3A
  • 4 S. Khalilzadeh 36 yr
    —
    53 caps · 2G · 20 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg)
  • 13 H. Kanani 31 yr
    —
    46 caps · 4G · 2 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.82rtg)
  • 2 Saleh Hardani 27 yr
    —
    14 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.06rtg)
  • 17 A. Yousefi 23 yr
    Sepahan FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    8 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
  • 19 A. Nemati 29 yr
    —
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 7
  • 7 A. Jahanbakhsh €3.0M 32 yr
    Dender · Jupiler Pro League
    91 caps · 16G · 14 since 2024 (16G/0A · 6.8rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
  • 6 S. Ezatolahi 29 yr
    Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Pro League
    79 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 7.1 rtg
  • 14 S. Ghoddos €2.0M 32 yr
    Al-Ittihad Kalba · League Cup
    63 caps · 3G · 20 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 4G · 3A · 7.4 rtg
  • 16 M. Torabi 31 yr
    Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League
    49 caps · 7G · 6 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.9rtg)
  • 15 R. Cheshmi 32 yr
    —
    36 caps · 3G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg)
  • 21 M. Ghorbani €800k 24 yr
    Al Wahda FC · Pro League
    11 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.64rtg)
  • 26 A. Razzaghinia 19 yr
    Esteghlal FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
ATT Attackers · 7
  • 9 M. Taremi Top scorer €2.5M 33 yr
    Olympiakos Piraeus · Super League 1
    99 caps · 51G · 22 since 2024 (7G/4A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 10G · 2A · 7.07 rtg
  • 8 M. Mohebi €3.5M 27 yr
    FC Rostov · Premier League
    26 caps · 11G · 11 since 2024 (6G/0A · 7.3rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.57 rtg
  • 20 S. Moghanlou €900k 31 yr
    Al-Ittihad Kalba · League Cup
    21 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.900000000000001rtg)  |  club 6G · 2A · 7.189473 rtg
  • 18 A. Hosseinzadeh €700k 25 yr
    Tractor Sazi · Persian Gulf Pro League
    13 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.795454 rtg
  • 11 A. Alipour €1.0M 30 yr
    —
    8 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
  • 24 D. Eckert Ayensa Top minutes 28 yr
    Standard Liege · Jupiler Pro League
     |  club 5G · 6.63 rtg
  • 10 M. Ghaedi 27 yr
    —
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 25 D. Eiri 21 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 2–2 v NZL
W 2–0 vs Mali
W 3–1 v Gambia
W 5–0 v Costa Rica
L 1–2 v Nigeria
L 0–0 v UZB

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(IRN win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-15 H vs New Zealand (NZL) 56.4% 27.4%
2026-06-21 A vs Belgium (BEL) 22.4% 25.6%
2026-06-26 A vs Egypt (EGY) 35.6% 32.4%

What the squad is worth

16 of 25 valued
Squad market value
€24.1M
Rank in the field
45 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

9 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
48.2/100
vs model strength -28.5
Top-5 leagues
0%
Unrated leagues
25%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Jupiler Pro League Belgium 2 27.3% 65
League Cup (unrated) 2 24.9% 30
Premier League Russia 1 15.3% 55
Super League 1 Greece 1 11.9% 55
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran 1 10.4% 38
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates 2 10.3% 40

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -28.5 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Iran (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.