Iran vs New Zealand

The model's prior (57% home win) is already high, and the supplied intel reinforces Iran's advantage. Iran's recent form (+0.62 pts/match vs expectation) against weaker sides shows they are in good rhythm, while New Zealand's form is poor (-0.16) against stronger opposition. Iran's key players, especially Taremi and Jahanbakhsh, provide more attacking depth than NZL's Chris Wood-led attack. The head-to-head record is sparse but favours Iran. No injuries or extreme conditions alter the baseline. I nudge the home win probability up slightly to 62% to reflect these factors, with draw and away win reduced accordingly. Iran's expected goals of 1.44 vs NZL's 0.54 suggest a low-scoring affair. Iran's defence is solid, and NZL's attack relies heavily on Wood. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 (18%) and 2-0 (14%), with a non-negligible chance of 1-1 (10%) if NZL can capitalize on a set piece. The model's top scorelines are retained with minor adjustments.

• Recent form
  Iran are DLWWW (+0.62 pts/match vs expectation, opponents avg rank #60); New Zealand are LLWLL (-0.16 pts/match, opponents avg rank #43). Iran are over-performing against weaker opposition; NZL are in line vs stronger opposition. → favours Iran
• Head-to-head
  Two meetings: Iran 3-0 NZL (2003) and 0-0 (1973). Very limited sample, but Iran unbeaten and won the only competitive match. → slightly favours Iran
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Iran's key attackers Taremi (98 caps, 51G, recent 7.65 rating), Jahanbakhsh (91 caps, 16G), Mohebi (25 caps, 10G), Torabi (49 caps, 7G), and defender Rezaeian (68 caps, 6G) all play at moderate club levels (Olympiakos, Dender, Rostov, Foolad). NZL's key attacker Chris Wood (84 caps, 45G, Nottingham Forest) is their only elite-level player; Barbarouses (71 caps, 9G, W. Sydney), Waine (29 caps, 8G, Port Vale), Just (41 caps, 7G, Motherwell), Garbett (37 caps, 5G, Peterborough) are at lower levels. Iran has more depth in attack. → favours Iran
• Recent news
  Reuters reports a politically charged atmosphere; AP notes Iran's war-related distractions. Sky Sports group guide confirms Iran and NZL are in Group G with Belgium and Egypt. No major squad disruptions for either side. → no clear directional effect; context may slightly unsettle Iran but not enough to shift probabilities
• Conditions
  SoFi Stadium: 19.9°C, mostly clear, humidity 79%, wind 16.6 km/h. Dome is climate-controlled; weather neutralized. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives Iran 57% win, 28% draw, 15% loss; market not supplied. No market anchor, so prior stands unless intel moves it. → no bearing (no market to compare)

• 1–0 24%
• 2–0 19%
• 0–0 14%
• 1–1 13%
• 2–1 11%
• 3–0 9%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.