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Group C · BRA

Brazil

Strength
87.1
± 1.7
Attack
86.2
0–100
Defense
85.9
0–100
P(champion)
12.88%
20.6% reach final
Strength trajectory
90.8 → 87.6 · -3.2
2023-03-31 range 87.6–90.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
12.88%
to lift
Polymarket
6.6%
implied · +6.3pp
Kalshi
6.4%
implied · +6.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
69.4%
R16
70.6%
Quarter
50.5%
Semi
33.6%
Final
20.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Maracanã
Rio de Janeiro · 78,838 seats (WC avg 55,865; +22,973)
Age profile
mean 28.3 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 Alisson Becker €17.0M 33 yr
    Liverpool · Premier League
    80 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.8rtg)
  • 23 Ederson €15.0M 32 yr
    Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
    33 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.73rtg)
  • 12 Weverton €700k 38 yr
    Palmeiras · Serie A
    11 caps · 1 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
DEF Defenders · 8
  • 4 Marquinhos €30.0M 31 yr
    Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
    105 caps · 7G · 27 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.766666666666667rtg)
  • 13 Danilo €2.5M 34 yr
    Flamengo · Supercopa do Brasil
    72 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.912048192771085rtg)  |  club 3G · 3A · 7.227027 rtg
  • 6 Alex Sandro €2.0M 34 yr
    Flamengo · Supercopa do Brasil
    46 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.385714285714286rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
  • 3 Gabriel Magalhães €20.0M 28 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    21 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.2rtg)  |  club 3G · 4A · 7.36 rtg
  • 14 Bremer €35.0M 28 yr
    Juventus · Serie A
    9 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.549438202247191rtg)  |  club 4G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
  • 24 Ibañez €28.0M 27 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    9 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.6rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 7.31 rtg
  • 16 Douglas Santos €8.0M 31 yr
    Zenit · Premier League
    9 caps · 8 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.993333333333333rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.18 rtg
  • 15 Léo Pereira €1.2M 29 yr
    Flamengo · Serie A
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.586956521739131rtg)  |  club 4G · 7.23 rtg
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 5 Casemiro €8.0M 33 yr
    Manchester United · Premier League
    88 caps · 10G · 17 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.1rtg)  |  club 9G · 2A · 7.19 rtg
  • 20 Lucas Paquetá €35.0M 28 yr
    West Ham · Premier League
    65 caps · 14G · 23 since 2024 (5G/5A · 7.416129032258064rtg)  |  club 4G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
  • 7 Vinícius Júnior €180.0M 25 yr
    Real Madrid · La Liga
    51 caps · 11G · 28 since 2024 (8G/5A · 7.8rtg)  |  club 16G · 5A · 7.51 rtg
  • 11 Raphinha €50.0M 29 yr
    Barcelona · La Liga
    41 caps · 11G · 25 since 2024 (6G/4A · 6.4310679611650485rtg)  |  club 13G · 3A · 7.55 rtg
  • 8 Bruno Guimarães €75.0M 28 yr
    Newcastle · Premier League
    45 caps · 3G · 33 since 2024 (2G/5A · 7.023529411764706rtg)  |  club 9G · 5A · 7.47 rtg
  • 17 Fabinho €38.0M 32 yr
    Al-Ittihad FC · Pro League
    35 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.6326086956521735rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
  • 18 Danilo Santos €40.0M 24 yr
    Botafogo · Serie A
    6 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.20873786407767rtg)  |  club 0G · 3A · 7.008333 rtg
  • 2 Éderson Silva 22 yr
ATT Attackers · 7
  • 10 Neymar Top scorer €50.0M 33 yr
    Santos · Serie A
    128 caps · 79G · 4 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.98rtg)  |  club 8G · 1A · 7.37 rtg
  • 22 Gabriel Martinelli €45.0M 24 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    25 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 1G · 4A · 6.6 rtg
  • 9 Matheus Cunha €45.0M 26 yr
    Manchester United · Premier League
    25 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.51864406779661rtg)  |  club 10G · 2A · 7.13 rtg
  • 19 Endrick €40.0M 19 yr
    Lyon · Ligue 1
    18 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.567741935483871rtg)  |  club 5G · 7A · 7.09 rtg
  • 21 Luiz Henrique €24.0M 24 yr
    Zenit · Premier League
    17 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.467521367521368rtg)  |  club 6G · 3A · 6.99 rtg
  • 25 Thiago Top minutes €1.0M 24 yr
    Brentford · Premier League
    6 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.802564102564103rtg)  |  club 22G · 1A · 6.94 rtg
  • 26 Rayan €60.0M 19 yr
    Vasco DA Gama · Serie A
    2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.9rtg)  |  club 14G · 1A · 7.17 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 1–1 v MAR
W 2–1 vs EGY
W 6–2 vs PAN
W 3–1 v CRO
L 1–2 v FRA
D 1–1 v TUN

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(BRA win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€852.9M
Rank in the field
5 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
81.3/100
vs model strength -5.8
Top-5 leagues
53%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Premier League England 8 33.0% 100
Serie A Brazil 5 18.7% 70
Pro League Saudi-Arabia 2 8.9% 60
Supercopa do Brasil Brazil 2 8.9% 70
Serie A Italy 2 8.2% 88
La Liga Spain 2 7.5% 95
Premier League Russia 2 7.0% 55
Ligue 1 France 2 4.0% 80
Süper Lig Turkey 1 3.8% 60

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -5.8 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Brazil (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.