Group C · Matchday 19 · 2026-06-29
Brazil vs Japan
Houston, nan
Full time
BRA 2–1 JPN
The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.
Most likely scoreline
1–0
13.2%
64.0%
BRA win
21.0%
Draw
14.7%
JPN win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 13.2%
- 2–0 11.5%
- 0–0 9.1%
- 1–1 8.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — BRA
+0.25 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #50
- PAN #72 +0.2
- EGY #34 +0.6
- MAR #11 -0.7
- HAI #96 +0.2
- SCO #39 +0.7
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 11
Last 5 — JPN
+0.37 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #30
- ENG #4 +2.4
- ICE #60 +0.7
- NED #9 -0.0
- TUN #53 +1.2
- SWE #24 -0.5
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2025-10-14 Japan 3–2 Brazil
- 2022-06-06 Japan 0–1 Brazil
- 2017-11-10 Japan 1–3 Brazil
- 2014-10-14 Japan 0–4 Brazil
- 2013-06-15 Brazil 3–0 Japan
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9.1
5.8
2.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
13.2
8.4
3.2
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
2
11.5
7.3
2.8
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
7.8
5.0
1.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
4.5
2.9
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
2.4
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = BRA goals; columns = JPN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.05
BRA
0.73
JPN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.