Group C · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24
Scotland vs Brazil
Miami Gardens, United States · neutral venue
Full time
SCO 0–3 BRA
The agent called
Brazil
(63%) —
Worse than the model
call right
The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.
Most likely scoreline
0–1
15.7%
12.7%
SCO win
22.2%
Draw
64.8%
BRA win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 15.7%
- 0–2 13.0%
- 0–0 11.4%
- 0–3 8.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
The agent’s call
3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chatSCO win
13.3%
Draw
23.3%
BRA win
63.3%
The model's 64% away win is supported by Brazil's dominant head-to-head record, superior squad value (3.5x Scotland's), and higher-caliber key players. However, the absences of Neymar and Raphinha due to injury slightly reduce Brazil's attacking potency, preventing a larger move away from the prior. Scotland's recent form is unremarkable, and conditions are neutralized by the dome, so the prior stands. Brazil's expected goals (1.87) and Scotland's low xG (0.59) point to a low-scoring Brazil win. The 0-1 and 0-2 scorelines are most likely, with 0-0 and 1-1 draws as secondary possibilities given Brazil's key absences.
What the agent weighed
-
Recent formScotland LWWWL, +0.16 pts/match vs expectation against avg rank #65; Brazil WWWDW, +0.09 vs expectation against avg rank #46. Both in line with expectations. → no bearing
-
Head-to-headBrazil won all 5 meetings (most recent 2011 2-0, 1998 2-1, 1990 1-0, 1987 2-0, 1982 4-1). → favours Brazil
-
AvailabilityNeymar (128 caps, 79G) is unavailable per API-Football; Raphinha has a hamstring injury (Washington Post). → reduces Brazil's attacking depth, slightly favours Scotland
-
Key playersBrazil's key players include Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid), Lucas Paquetá (West Ham), Casemiro (Man Utd); Scotland's include McTominay (Napoli), Robertson (Liverpool), McGinn (Aston Villa). Brazil's marquee players are at higher club level. → favours Brazil
-
Squad market valueBrazil ranks 5th (91st pct), Scotland 23rd (53rd pct); Brazil's squad ~3.5x more valuable. → favours Brazil
-
Recent newsNeymar included in squad but injured; Raphinha injured; Scotland's squad announced with McTominay as star (Sporting News, ESPN, Sky Sports). → slightly reduces Brazil's edge due to injuries
-
ConditionsHard Rock Stadium is climate-controlled (roof), neutralizing 31.1°C and thunderstorm. → no bearing
-
Model vs marketModel gives Brazil 64% away win; no market lines supplied. Squad value and head-to-head agree with model. → no divergence needed
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on
tavily —
9 sources kept:
-
“Brazil squad news June 2026 injuries suspensions”
BRA · 3 hits
Check for other key Brazil players missing besides Neymar.
-
“Scotland squad news June 2026 injuries suspensions”
SCO · 3 hits
Check for Scotland player absences that could affect the match.
-
“Brazil vs Scotland neutral venue weather Miami June 2026”
match · 3 hits
Weather conditions in Miami could impact playing style and forecast.
- BRA: Raphinha has a hamstring injury and will undergo treatment, Brazil says - The Washington Post — # Raphinha has a hamstring injury and will undergo treatment, Brazil says. Brazil says forward Raphinha will undergo treatment on a hamstring injury with the hope of him returning to the World Cup. Brazil washingtonpost.com · Sat, 20 Jun 2026 20:48:57 GMT
- BRA: Is Neymar playing vs. Morocco? Latest on Brazil star's injury recovery at World Cup 2026 - sportingnews.com — Latest on Brazil star's injury recovery at World Cup 2026. Neymar made a long-awaited return to the Brazil squad for the 2026 World Cup and the superstar forward is eyeing what is likely to sportingnews.com · Fri, 12 Jun 2026 08:30:01 GMT
- BRA: Neymar included in Brazil's 26-man World Cup squad - BBC — # 2026 World Cup: Neymar named in Brazil's 26-man squad - BBC Sport. # Neymar included in Brazil's 26-man World Cup squad. Brazil forward Neymar has played 14 games for Santos this season. **Brazil forward Neymar has been included in head co bbc.com · Mon, 18 May 2026 22:11:12 GMT
- SCO: Inside Scotland's World Cup squad 2026: Scott McTominay the star of Steve Clarke's roster, but injuries strike at bad time - sportingnews.com — # Inside Scotland's World Cup squad 2026: Scott McTominay the star of Steve Clarke's roster, but injuries strike at bad time. Scotland will play at a World sportingnews.com · Tue, 19 May 2026 10:31:01 GMT
- SCO: Scotland World Cup squad announced: Scott McTominay, Ross Stewart, Craig Gordon among 26 players - ESPN — McTominay, Stewart in Scotland World Cup squad. Neymar named to Brazil's final World Cup squad. Top 50 USMNT players, ranked by club form: A new No. 1 tops Americans before World Cup. Wherever M espn.com · Tue, 19 May 2026 10:07:00 GMT
- SCO: Scotland World Cup 2026 squad: Who will land spot in Steve Clarke's 26-man group heading to North America? - Sky Sports — # Scotland World Cup 2026 squad: Who will land spot in Steve Clarke's 26-man group heading to North America? Steve Clarke will name his 26-man squad for the World Cup on Tuesday; skysports.com · Mon, 18 May 2026 18:55:53 GMT
- MATCH: Brazil defeats Haiti, sets up World Cup showdown with Scotland, shop tickets now - USA Today — * Brazil and Scotland will face off in a World Cup 2026 group stage match on June 24 in Miami Gardens, Florida. * The match will take place at Hard Rock Stadium at 6 p.m. ET and has major implications for usatoday.com · Sat, 20 Jun 2026 02:39:00 GMT
- MATCH: Scotland's Tartan Army descend on Miami Beach ahead of Brazil clash - Reuters — Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals Learn more about Refinitiv. ## Browse World. * ### Image 2: Scotland's Tartan Army descend on Miami Beach ahead of Brazil clash Now Playing Scotland reuters.com · Wed, 24 Jun 2026 04:42:06 GMT
- MATCH: Scotland's World Cup Group C games - Sky Sports — # Scotland's World Cup 2026 fixtures, schedule, plus routes to knock-out stage and beyond! Scotland's final warm-up games feature a Hampden Park meeting with Curacao on May 30 before facing Bolivia in the USA; Scotland take on Haiti in their World Cu skysports.com · Wed, 20 May 2026 21:10:40 GMT
Agent scorelines
- 0–1 24%
- 0–2 20%
- 0–0 17%
- 1–1 13%
- 1–2 11%
- 0–3 10%
generated 2026-06-24
Last 5 — SCO
+0.18 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #65
- CIV #26 -1.2
- CUW #119 +0.5
- BOL #73 +1.4
- HAI #96 +0.8
- MAR #11 -0.9
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 11
Last 5 — BRA
+0.09 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #46
- CRO #15 +1.1
- PAN #72 +0.2
- EGY #34 +0.6
- MAR #11 -0.7
- HAI #96 +0.2
GF / GA last 10: 26 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2011-03-27 Brazil 2–0 Scotland
- 1998-06-10 Brazil 2–1 Scotland
- 1990-06-20 Brazil 1–0 Scotland
- 1987-05-26 Scotland 0–2 Brazil
- 1982-06-18 Brazil 4–1 Scotland
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.4
15.7
13.0
8.4
4.6
2.3
1.1
1
6.0
8.3
6.9
4.4
2.4
1.2
0.6
2
1.9
2.6
2.2
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.2
3
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = SCO goals; columns = BRA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.59
SCO
1.91
BRA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.