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Group D · USA · outside top-16

United States

Strength

75.4

± 1.4

Attack

75.9

0–100

Defense

75.6

0–100

P(champion)

0.6%

1.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

76.1 → 75.1 · -1.0

2023-03-31 range 75.1–76.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.6%

to lift

Polymarket

3.0%

implied · -2.4pp

Kalshi

3.8%

implied · -3.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

33.5%

R16

37.8%

Quarter

14.6%

Semi

5.0%

Final

1.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

AT&T Stadium

Arlington · 80,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +24,135)

Age profile

mean 26.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 M. Turner €7.0M 31 yr

New England Revolution · Major League Soccer

56 caps · 17 since 2024 (6.233333333333333rtg)
24 M. Freese €2.0M 27 yr

New York City FC · Major League Soccer

16 caps · 16 since 2024 (6.56rtg)
25 C. Brady 21 yr

Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.3rtg)

DEF Defenders · 7

13 T. Ream €800k 38 yr

Charlotte · Major League Soccer

87 caps · 1G · 29 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.737735849056604rtg)
12 M. Robinson €3.5M 28 yr

FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

42 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.47910447761194rtg) | club 1G · 7.09 rtg
3 C. Richards Top minutes €25.0M 25 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

40 caps · 2G · 24 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.025rtg) | club 1G · 6.9 rtg
22 M. McKenzie €6.0M 26 yr

Toulouse · Ligue 1

31 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.347852760736196rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.81 rtg
23 J. Scally €7.0M 23 yr

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga

29 caps · 20 since 2024 (6.327272727272728rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.63 rtg
16 A. Freeman €3.5M 21 yr

Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer

20 caps · 3G · 20 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.222040816326531rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 7.32 rtg
6 A. Trusty €5.0M 27 yr

Celtic · League Cup

11 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.894318181818182rtg)

MID Midfielders · 9

10 C. Pulisic Top scorer €60.0M 27 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

87 caps · 31G · 25 since 2024 (6G/5A · 6.997583081570998rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 6.99 rtg
8 W. McKennie €22.0M 27 yr

Juventus · Serie A

72 caps · 12G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.936396396396396rtg) | club 5G · 5A · 6.87 rtg
5 A. Robinson €30.0M 28 yr

Fulham · Premier League

59 caps · 5G · 18 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.0748358862144425rtg) | club 1G · 6.83 rtg
7 G. Reyna €6.0M 23 yr

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga

44 caps · 10G · 18 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.603960396039604rtg) | club 1G · 6.78 rtg
4 T. Adams 27 yr

Bournemouth · Premier League

57 caps · 3G · 18 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.864705882352942rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
15 C. Roldan €3.5M 30 yr

Seattle Sounders · Major League Soccer

50 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.280597014925373rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.52 rtg
17 M. Tillman €35.0M 23 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

36 caps · 5G · 26 since 2024 (5G/5A · 7.26522633744856rtg) | club 6G · 6.92 rtg
14 S. Berhalter €8.0M 24 yr

Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer

17 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.18294314381271rtg) | club 4G · 10A · 7.61 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 7

11 B. Aaronson €12.0M 25 yr

Leeds · Premier League

59 caps · 9G · 19 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.294736842105263rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 6.76 rtg
9 R. Pepi €15.0M 22 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

43 caps · 13G · 20 since 2024 (3G/3A · 6.456rtg) | club 16G · 1A · 7.04 rtg
21 T. Weah €20.0M 25 yr

Marseille · Ligue 1

52 caps · 7G · 17 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.262237762237763rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.76 rtg
20 F. Balogun €22.0M 24 yr

Monaco · Ligue 1

30 caps · 12G · 22 since 2024 (9G/1A · 6.953333333333334rtg) | club 13G · 4A · 6.77 rtg
2 S. Dest €18.0M 25 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

44 caps · 4G · 12 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.767951807228915rtg) | club 1G · 5A · 7.04 rtg
19 H. Wright €7.0M 27 yr

Coventry · Championship

19 caps · 7G · 10 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.93rtg) | club 17G · 1A · 6.84 rtg
26 A. Zendejas 28 yr

Club America · Liga MX

13 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.82258064516129rtg) | club 12G · 7A · 7.31 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

18 M. Arfsten 24 yr

Columbus Crew · 21c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 1–4 vs BEL

W 2–0 vs BIH

L 2–3 vs TUR

W 2–0 vs AUS

W 4–1 vs PAR

L 1–2 vs GER

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(USA win)	P(draw)
2026-06-12	H vs Paraguay (PAR)	41.7%	28.4%
2026-06-19	H vs Australia (AUS)	41.6%	27.2%
2026-06-25	H vs Turkey (TUR)	43.1%	23.4%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€335.3M

Rank in the field

17 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

68.6/100

vs model strength -6.8

Top-5 leagues

42%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Major League Soccer	USA	9	39.1%	50
Premier League	England	4	14.6%	100
Ligue 1	France	3	11.8%	80
Bundesliga	Germany	3	8.2%	90
Serie A	Italy	2	7.6%	88
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	6.2%	72
League Cup	Scotland	1	4.4%	50
Championship	England	1	4.4%	55
Liga MX	Mexico	1	3.6%	50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -6.8 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: C. Pulišić, F. Balogun, M. McKenzie, M. McKenzie, C. Roldan, C. Roldan, C. Roldan.

Sources

4 verified outlets for United States (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.