United States vs Turkey

The model gives USA a 45% win probability, but key intel shifts the balance toward Turkey. USA's recent form is strong, but the loss of Pulisic removes their most creative attacker. Turkey's squad is marginally more valuable, their key players operate at higher club levels, and they have no absences. The head-to-head is even but Turkey won the most recent meeting. I reduce USA's win probability from 45% to 40%, raise Turkey's from 31% to 35%, and keep the draw near the model's 24% at 25%. Expected goals are moderate: USA 1.60, Turkey 1.25 per model. With Pulisic out, USA's attack weakens, lowering their expected output slightly. Turkey's attack is intact. Most likely scorelines are 1-1, 1-0 USA, 0-1 Turkey, reflecting a tight, low-scoring match. The 1-1 draw gets the highest probability as both teams have defensive solidity.

• Recent form
  USA are over-performing expectations by +0.81 pts/match against avg opponent rank #19; Turkey are in line with expectations (-0.20) against avg opponent rank #41. USA's form is stronger. → favours USA
• Head-to-head
  Last 5 meetings: USA 2 wins, Turkey 2 wins, 1 draw. Most recent (2025) Turkey won 2-1. Slightly favours Turkey on recency. → favours Turkey
• Availability
  USA's key attacker Christian Pulisic is listed unavailable (source: API-Football, 2026-06-25). Turkey has no reported absences. → favours Turkey
• Key players
  USA's top players: Pulisic (unavailable), Balogun (Monaco), McKennie (Juventus), Reyna (Mönchengladbach). Turkey's top players: Çalhanoglu (Inter), Güler (Real Madrid), Aktürkoglu (Fenerbahçe). Turkey's key players play at higher club level on average. → favours Turkey
• Squad market value
  Turkey ranks 15th (70th pct), USA ranks 17th (66th pct). Turkey's squad is ~1.2x more valuable, indicating a slight talent edge. → favours Turkey
• Recent news
  Turkey captain Çalhanoglu claimed his team is 'more talented' and will 'dominate' (foxsports.com). Another article notes Turkey's early exit lament (reuters.com), suggesting possible morale issues. Mixed signal. → no bearing
• Conditions
  Match at SoFi Stadium with controlled roof, 17.9°C, humidity 82%, wind 12.1 km/h. Dome neutralizes weather; conditions are comfortable and irrelevant. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Statistical model gives USA 45% win, Turkey 31% win. No market lines supplied. Model may lag squad reality; Turkey's squad value is slightly higher and they have no key absences, while USA lose Pulisic. → favours Turkey

• 1–1 20%
• 1–0 18%
• 0–1 16%
• 2–1 14%
• 0–0 13%
• 1–2 13%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.