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Group D · PAR · outside top-16

Paraguay

Strength
75.9
± 1.9
Attack
72.9
0–100
Defense
77.8
0–100
P(champion)
0.43%
1.4% reach final
Strength trajectory
75.7 → 76.6 · +0.9
2023-03-31 range 74.9–77.0 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.43%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · +0.3pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · +0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.7%
R16
31.3%
Quarter
11.5%
Semi
4.0%
Final
1.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Estadio Defensores del Chaco
Asunción · 42,354 seats (WC avg 55,865; -13,511)
Age profile
mean 28.0 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 12 O. Gill €6.0M 25 yr
    San Lorenzo · Liga Profesional Argentina
    6 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.2rtg)
  • 22 G. Olveira 32 yr
    Olimpia · Division Profesional - Apertura
    1 cap
  • 1 R. Fernandez €3.5M 37 yr
    —
DEF Defenders · 8
  • 15 G. Gómez €8.5M 32 yr
    Palmeiras · Serie A
    89 caps · 4G · 23 since 2024 (4G/0A · 5.9rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 7.23 rtg
  • 6 J. Alonso €8.0M 32 yr
    Atletico-MG · Serie A
    71 caps · 3G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 5.2rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 7.02 rtg
  • 5 F. Balbuena €1.5M 34 yr
    Gremio · Serie A
    47 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.89rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.13 rtg
  • 3 O. Alderete Top minutes €12.0M 29 yr
    Sunderland · Premier League
    36 caps · 3G · 24 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
  • 4 J. Cáceres €4.0M 25 yr
    Dynamo · Premier League
    17 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.2rtg)  |  club 1G · 6A · 7.02 rtg
  • 2 G. Velázquez 34 yr
    Cerro Porteno · Division Profesional - Apertura
    13 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.2rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.23 rtg
  • 26 A. Maidana €2.5M 20 yr
    Club Guarani · Division Profesional - Apertura
    1 cap  |  club 3G · 7.0 rtg
  • 13 J. Canale €2.2M 29 yr
    Lanus · Liga Profesional Argentina
    1 cap  |  club 4G · 7.35 rtg
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 10 M. Almirón Top scorer €9.0M 31 yr
    Atlanta United FC · Major League Soccer
    76 caps · 9G · 27 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 6G · 4A · 7.22 rtg
  • 14 A. Cubas 29 yr
    Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer
    33 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.9rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.99 rtg
  • 8 D. Gómez €25.0M 22 yr
    Brighton · Premier League
    24 caps · 2G · 20 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.0rtg)  |  club 5G · 1A · 6.74 rtg
  • 16 D. Bobadilla €6.0M 24 yr
    Sao Paulo · Serie A
    21 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 5.3rtg)  |  club 4G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
  • 23 M. Galarza €3.0M 23 yr
    Talleres Cordoba · Liga Profesional Argentina
    14 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.86rtg)
  • 20 B. Ojeda €3.5M 25 yr
    Real Salt Lake · Major League Soccer
    16 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.62rtg)  |  club 2G · 6.96 rtg
  • 11 Maurício €15.0M 24 yr
    Palmeiras · Serie A
    3 caps · 1G · 3 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.2rtg)  |  club 3G · 7A · 6.92 rtg
  • 24 G. Caballero €1.0M 24 yr
    Nacional Asuncion · Division Profesional - Apertura
    2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.7rtg)  |  club 5G
ATT Attackers · 7
  • 9 A. Sanabria €7.0M 29 yr
    Cremonese · Serie A
    48 caps · 7G · 20 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.5 rtg
  • 17 A. Romero €600k 30 yr
    Al Ain · Pro League
    34 caps · 5G · 19 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 7.06 rtg
  • 19 J. Enciso €20.0M 21 yr
    Strasbourg · Ligue 1
    32 caps · 4G · 21 since 2024 (4G/4A · 7.2rtg)  |  club 3G · 6A · 7.06 rtg
  • 7 R. Sosa €11.0M 26 yr
    Palmeiras · Serie A
    29 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 3G · 3A · 6.89 rtg
  • 21 G. Ávalos €750k 35 yr
    Independiente · Copa Argentina
    22 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.68rtg)  |  club 16G · 3A · 7.14 rtg
  • 18 A. Arce €3.5M 30 yr
    LDU de Quito · Liga Pro
    15 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 6.97 rtg
  • 25 I. Pitta 26 yr
    RB Bragantino · Serie A
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.62rtg)  |  club 7G · 2A · 6.96 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 1–4 @ USA
W 4–0 vs Nicaragua
L 1–2 v MAR
W 1–0 @ Greece
W 2–1 v MEX
L 1–2 @ USA

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(PAR win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-12 A vs United States (USA) 29.4% 27.9%
2026-06-19 A vs Turkey (TUR) 33.7% 28.7%
2026-06-25 H vs Australia (AUS) 30.6% 32.6%

What the squad is worth

24 of 26 valued
Squad market value
€157.8M
Rank in the field
28 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
64.6/100
vs model strength -11.3
Top-5 leagues
18%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Serie A Brazil 7 26.0% 70
Major League Soccer USA 3 17.3% 50
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina 3 11.7% 62
Premier League England 2 11.6% 100
Division Profesional - Apertura Paraguay 4 11.0% 45
Copa Argentina Argentina 1 6.1% 62
Premier League Russia 1 4.9% 55
Ligue 1 France 1 4.4% 80
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates 1 2.6% 40
Liga Pro Ecuador 1 2.3% 45
Serie A Italy 1 2.2% 88

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -11.3 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Paraguay (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.