Group E · Matchday 19 · 2026-06-29
Germany vs Paraguay
Boston, nan
Full time
GER 1–1 PAR
The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.
Most likely scoreline
1–0
12.0%
64.4%
GER win
20.1%
Draw
15.1%
PAR win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 12.0%
- 2–0 10.9%
- 1–1 8.2%
- 0–0 8.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — GER
-0.08 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #53
- FIN #68 +0.4
- USA #37 +1.1
- CUW #119 +0.2
- CIV #26 +1.0
- ECU #17 -1.7
GF / GA last 10: 31 / 9
Last 5 — PAR
+0.10 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #51
- MAR #11 -0.9
- NIC #151 +0.3
- USA #37 -1.1
- TUR #25 +1.7
- AUS #29 -0.3
GF / GA last 10: 13 / 13
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2013-08-14 Germany 3–3 Paraguay
- 2002-06-15 Germany 1–0 Paraguay
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8.0
5.5
2.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
12.0
8.2
3.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
10.9
7.4
3.0
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
7.6
5.2
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
4.6
3.1
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
2.5
1.7
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = GER goals; columns = PAR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.16
GER
0.79
PAR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.