Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← Group G
Group G · NZL · outside top-16

New Zealand

Strength
67.4
± 2.2
Attack
64.2
0–100
Defense
70.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.0%
0.0% reach final
Strength trajectory
67.1 → 67.4 · +0.3
2023-03-31 range 65.8–68.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.0%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
3.0%
R16
7.1%
Quarter
1.3%
Semi
0.2%
Final
0.0%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Eden Park
Auckland · 50,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,865)
Age profile
mean 27.1 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 M. Crocombe €1.0M 32 yr
    Millwall · Championship
    21 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.610344827586206rtg)
  • 12 A. Paulsen €500k 23 yr
    Lechia Gdansk · Ekstraklasa
    6 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
  • 22 M. Woud €250k 26 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    5 caps
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 5 M. Boxall €150k 37 yr
    Minnesota United FC · Major League Soccer
    60 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 7.03 rtg
  • 15 N. Pijnaker €175k 26 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    52 caps · 4G · 33 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.7rtg)
  • 26 T. Smith €50k 35 yr
    Braintree · FA Cup
    54 caps · 2G · 5 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg)
  • 2 T. Payne €350k 31 yr
    Wellington Phoenix · A-League
    46 caps · 3G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.332857142857143rtg)  |  club 0G · 5A · 6.59 rtg
  • 13 L. Cacace €3.0M 25 yr
    Wrexham · Championship
    36 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.4364341085271315rtg)
  • 4 Tyler Bindon €1.5M 20 yr
    Sheffield Utd · Championship
    22 caps · 3G · 18 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.92 rtg
  • 16 F. Surman €1.8M 22 yr
    Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer
    16 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.248571428571428rtg)
  • 3 F. de Vries €600k 31 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    17 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 1G · 7A · 7.32 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 9
  • 11 E. Just €350k 25 yr
    Motherwell · Premiership
    42 caps · 9G · 21 since 2024 (8G/0A · 7.699999999999999rtg)  |  club 7G · 7A · 7.11 rtg
  • 7 M. Garbett €500k 23 yr
    Peterborough · League One
    37 caps · 5G · 16 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.89 rtg
  • 8 M. Stamenic €3.0M 23 yr
    Swansea · Championship
    37 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.75 rtg
  • 20 C. McCowatt €2.0M 26 yr
    Silkeborg · Superliga
    29 caps · 4G · 12 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.630379746835444rtg)  |  club 11G · 5A · 7.23 rtg
  • 6 J. Bell €1.2M 26 yr
    Viking · Eliteserien
    31 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 3G · 4A · 7.34 rtg
  • 23 R. Thomas Top minutes €900k 31 yr
    PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
    22 caps · 3G · 5 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 7.13 rtg
  • 10 S. Singh €600k 26 yr
    TSC Backa Topola · Super Liga
    24 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (2G/1A · 5.948554913294797rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.82 rtg
  • 14 A. Rufer €600k 29 yr
    Wellington Phoenix · A-League
    22 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.3rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 7.18 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 5
  • 9 C. Wood Top scorer €8.0M 34 yr
    Nottingham Forest · Premier League
    85 caps · 45G · 15 since 2024 (11G/2A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 3G · 6.61 rtg
  • 17 K. Barbarouses €500k 35 yr
    Western Sydney Wanderers · A-League
    71 caps · 9G · 18 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 4G · 1A · 6.6 rtg
  • 18 B. Waine €400k 24 yr
    Port Vale · League One
    29 caps · 8G · 17 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.73rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 6.65 rtg
  • 19 B. Old €600k 23 yr
    Saint Etienne · Ligue 2
    21 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.784313725490196rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.65 rtg
  • 21 J. Randall €900k 23 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    9 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 9G · 8A · 7.18 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 24 C. Elliot 26 yr
    Auckland · 8c
MID · additional
  • 25 L. Bayliss 23 yr
    Newcastle Jets

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 2–2 v IRN
L 0–1 @ ENG
L 0–4 @ HAI
W 4–1 vs Chile
L 0–2 vs Finland
L 0–2 v ECU

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(NZL win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€29.8M
Rank in the field
42 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
49.2/100
vs model strength -18.2
Top-5 leagues
2%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
A-League Australia 9 32.7% 42
Championship England 4 15.2% 55
Major League Soccer USA 2 12.7% 50
League One England 2 6.8% 45
Premiership Scotland 1 5.6% 50
Eliteserien Norway 1 5.3% 45
Superliga Denmark 1 5.2% 50
Ekstraklasa Poland 1 4.5% 48
Eredivisie Netherlands 1 4.5% 72
Ligue 2 France 1 3.9% 48
Premier League England 1 1.9% 100
Super Liga Serbia 1 1.8% 45
FA Cup England 1 0.0% 100

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -18.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for New Zealand (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.