← Group E

Group E · GER

Germany

Strength

83.7

± 1.2

Attack

87.1

0–100

Defense

79.0

0–100

P(champion)

4.99%

10.5% reach final

Strength trajectory

83.7 → 83.6 · -0.1

2023-03-31 range 83.0–83.9 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

4.99%

to lift

Polymarket

6.3%

implied · -1.3pp

Kalshi

6.0%

implied · -1.0pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

58.7%

R16

64.8%

Quarter

35.7%

Semi

20.9%

Final

10.5%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Signal Iduna Park

Dortmund · 81,365 seats (WC avg 55,865; +25,500)

Age profile

mean 27.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 M. Neuer 39 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

116 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.7rtg)
12 O. Baumann €3.0M 35 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

13 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.3rtg)
21 A. Nübel €12.0M 29 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.77rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.2 rtg

DEF Defenders · 8

6 J. Kimmich €40.0M 30 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

107 caps · 10G · 29 since 2024 (4G/13A · 7.776388888888889rtg) | club 2G · 8A · 7.74 rtg
2 A. Rüdiger €25.0M 32 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

82 caps · 3G · 17 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 1G · 6.91 rtg
4 J. Tah €30.0M 29 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

48 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.27 rtg
22 D. Raum €20.0M 27 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

38 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/3A · 6.710869565217391rtg) | club 3G · 7A · 7.37 rtg
15 N. Schlotterbeck €55.0M 26 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

28 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/2A · 8.25rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.7 rtg
3 W. Anton €18.0M 29 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

14 caps · 14 since 2024 (6.692857142857142rtg) | club 2G · 7.26 rtg
18 N. Brown €35.0M 22 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

6 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.362686567164179rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 6.77 rtg
24 M. Thiaw Top minutes €25.0M 24 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

5 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.8rtg) | club 4G · 7.04 rtg

MID Midfielders · 10

19 L. Sané €23.0M 30 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

72 caps · 15G · 18 since 2024 (4G/4A · 6.855555555555555rtg) | club 7G · 5A · 7.17 rtg
8 L. Goretzka €15.0M 30 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

66 caps · 11G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.78888888888889rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
10 J. Musiala 22 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

45 caps · 10G · 18 since 2024 (8G/4A · 7.088888888888889rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 6.68 rtg
17 F. Wirtz €110.0M 22 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

42 caps · 11G · 28 since 2024 (11G/8A · 7.041176470588235rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 6.81 rtg
13 P. Groß €3.5M 34 yr

Brighton · Premier League

18 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.37rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.05 rtg
5 A. Pavlovic 21 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

12 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.370588235294117rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 7.19 rtg
23 F. Nmecha 25 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

9 caps · 2G · 8 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.411111111111111rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.93 rtg
20 N. Amiri 29 yr

FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

11 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 12G · 2A · 7.45 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

7 K. Havertz Top scorer €55.0M 26 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

56 caps · 24G · 17 since 2024 (10G/3A · 8.178807947019868rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.68 rtg
26 D. Undav €25.0M 29 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

10 caps · 7G · 10 since 2024 (7G/4A · 7.192727272727273rtg) | club 19G · 7A · 7.18 rtg
11 N. Woltemade €70.0M 23 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

11 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.06rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 6.66 rtg
14 M. Beier 23 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.2rtg) | club 9G · 6A · 6.8 rtg
9 J. Leweling 24 yr

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

5 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 7G · 9A · 7.03 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

16 A. Stiller 24 yr

VfB Stuttgart · 8c
25 A. Ouédraogo 17 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 7–1 v CUW

W 2–1 @ USA

W 4–0 vs Finland

W 2–1 vs GHA

W 4–3 @ SUI

W 6–0 vs Slovakia

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(GER win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	H vs Curaçao (CUW)	82.1%	8.3%
2026-06-20	H vs Ivory Coast (CIV)	55.7%	23.9%
2026-06-25	A vs Ecuador (ECU)	45.5%	27.5%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€763.5M

Rank in the field

8 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

90.6/100

vs model strength +6.9

Top-5 leagues

96%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Bundesliga	Germany	19	75.9%	90
Premier League	England	5	17.2%	100
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	4.1%	60
La Liga	Spain	1	2.7%	95

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +6.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Germany (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.