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Group G · BEL

Belgium

Strength
82.7
± 1.5
Attack
84.0
0–100
Defense
80.2
0–100
P(champion)
4.08%
9.1% reach final
Strength trajectory
84.2 → 82.7 · -1.5
2023-03-31 range 82.6–84.2 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
4.08%
to lift
Polymarket
1.7%
implied · +2.4pp
Kalshi
1.4%
implied · +2.7pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
60.9%
R16
65.1%
Quarter
39.3%
Semi
18.2%
Final
9.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
King Baudouin Stadium
Brussels · 50,093 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,772)
Age profile
mean 26.7 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 T. Courtois €28.0M 33 yr
    Real Madrid · La Liga
    102 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.998540145985401rtg)
  • 12 S. Lammens €25.0M 23 yr
    Manchester United · Premier League
    2 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.75rtg)
  • 13 M. Penders €1.0M 20 yr
    Strasbourg · Ligue 1
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 15 T. Meunier €1.8M 34 yr
    Lille · Ligue 1
    78 caps · 10G · 17 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.4720207253886rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.87 rtg
  • 21 T. Castagne €10.0M 30 yr
    Fulham · Premier League
    59 caps · 25 since 2024 (0G/3A · 7.599999999999999rtg)
  • 3 A. Theate €24.0M 25 yr
    Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga
    33 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.11rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.8 rtg
  • 5 M. De Cuyper €22.0M 25 yr
    Brighton · Premier League
    21 caps · 4G · 21 since 2024 (4G/4A · 6.782926829268293rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 6.86 rtg
  • 2 Z. Debast €30.0M 22 yr
    Sporting CP · Primeira Liga
    26 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.07rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 7.12 rtg
  • 4 B. Mechele €3.0M 32 yr
    Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League
    11 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.266990291262136rtg)  |  club 5G · 2A · 7.3 rtg
  • 16 K. De Winter €12.0M 23 yr
    AC Milan · Serie A
    8 caps · 8 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.43rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.88 rtg
  • 25 N. Ngoy €3.5M 22 yr
    Lille · Ligue 1
    6 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.0rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 7 K. De Bruyne €15.0M 34 yr
    Napoli · Serie A
    115 caps · 33G · 22 since 2024 (11G/3A · 7.353218884120172rtg)  |  club 5G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
  • 6 A. Witsel €1.4M 36 yr
    Girona · La Liga
    130 caps · 10G · 9 since 2024 (10G/0A · 6.758064516129032rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
  • 8 Y. Tielemans €35.0M 28 yr
    Aston Villa · Premier League
    78 caps · 12G · 22 since 2024 (9G/3A · 7.8999999999999995rtg)  |  club 0G · 4A · 7.21 rtg
  • 10 L. Trossard 31 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    52 caps · 12G · 22 since 2024 (5G/1A · 7.254878048780489rtg)  |  club 6G · 6A · 6.96 rtg
  • 11 J. Doku €65.0M 23 yr
    Manchester City · Premier League
    47 caps · 7G · 27 since 2024 (5G/6A · 7.757081545064377rtg)  |  club 5G · 5A · 7.39 rtg
  • 20 H. Vanaken 33 yr
    Club Brugge KV · Super Cup
    34 caps · 7G · 13 since 2024 (2G/4A · 6.66rtg)  |  club 14G · 6A · 7.2925 rtg
  • 24 A. Onana €42.0M 24 yr
    Aston Villa · Premier League
    31 caps · 1G · 22 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.288359788359788rtg)  |  club 2G · 7.03 rtg
  • 23 N. Raskin €6.5M 24 yr
    Rangers · Premiership
    15 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.622047244094488rtg)  |  club 6G · 7A · 7.46 rtg
ATT Attackers · 6
  • 9 R. Lukaku Top scorer €15.0M 32 yr
    Napoli · Serie A
    123 caps · 87G · 15 since 2024 (8G/2A · 6.521739130434782rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.63 rtg
  • 17 C. De Ketelaere €34.0M 24 yr
    Atalanta · Serie A
    32 caps · 6G · 18 since 2024 (4G/3A · 7.262439024390243rtg)  |  club 3G · 5A · 7.25 rtg
  • 14 D. Lukebakio €20.0M 28 yr
    Benfica · Primeira Liga
    30 caps · 6G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 8.5rtg)  |  club 0G · 3A · 7.04 rtg
  • 22 A. Saelemaekers Top minutes €12.0M 26 yr
    AC Milan · Serie A
    24 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (1G/5A · 7.25rtg)  |  club 3G · 3A · 7.17 rtg
  • 26 M. Fernandez-Pardo €3.0M 20 yr
    Lille · Ligue 1
    4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.870212765957446rtg)  |  club 8G · 5A · 7.0 rtg
  • 19 D. Moreira €18.0M 21 yr
    Strasbourg · Ligue 1
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.3rtg)  |  club 4G · 6A · 7.02 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 18 J. Seys 20 yr
    Club Brugge KV · 5c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 1–1 v EGY
W 5–0 vs TUN
W 2–0 @ CRO
D 1–1 v MEX
W 5–2 @ USA
W 7–0 vs Liechtenstein

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(BEL win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€427.8M
Rank in the field
14 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
81.1/100
vs model strength -1.6
Top-5 leagues
74%
Unrated leagues
6%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Premier League England 7 24.6% 100
Ligue 1 France 5 21.0% 80
Serie A Italy 5 14.4% 88
Jupiler Pro League Belgium 2 11.5% 65
La Liga Spain 2 9.7% 95
Super Cup (unrated) 1 6.4% 30
Premiership Scotland 1 5.0% 50
Bundesliga Germany 1 3.8% 90
Primeira Liga Portugal 2 3.5% 70

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -1.6 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Belgium (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.