Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← Group K
Group K · UZB · outside top-16

Uzbekistan

Strength
70.2
± 1.8
Attack
69.0
0–100
Defense
72.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.1%
0.2% reach final
Strength trajectory
70.0 → 72.4 · +2.4
2023-03-31 range 70.0–72.4 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.1%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · +0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · +0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
4.7%
R16
11.8%
Quarter
3.5%
Semi
1.0%
Final
0.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Milliy Stadium
Tashkent · 34,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; -21,865)
Age profile
mean 27.3 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 U. Yusupov €500k 34 yr
    Foolad FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    40 caps · 18 since 2024 (5.9rtg)
  • 12 A. Nematov €1.5M 24 yr
    Nasaf · Super League
    10 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.466666666666667rtg)
  • 16 B. Ergashev €500k 30 yr
    Neftchi · Super League
    2 caps · 1 since 2024
DEF Defenders · 7
  • 5 R. Ashurmatov €800k 29 yr
    Esteghlal FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    51 caps · 22 since 2024 (6.179405034324943rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.8 rtg
  • 15 U. Eshmurodov €450k 33 yr
    Nasaf · Super League
    30 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.76rtg)
  • 2 A. Khusanov €35.0M 21 yr
    Manchester City · Premier League
    24 caps · 20 since 2024 (6.42rtg)
  • 26 J. Urozov €600k 22 yr
    Dinamo Samarqand · Super League
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.116585365853659rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A
  • 25 A. Ulmasaliev 26 yr
    Olmaliq · Super League
     |  club 2G · 7.36 rtg
  • 4 F. Sayfiev €225k 34 yr
    —
  • 18 A. Abdullaev 28 yr
    —
MID Midfielders · 11
  • 7 O. Shukurov €1.6M 29 yr
    Baniyas SC · Pro League
    86 caps · 8G · 24 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.477638190954774rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 6.67 rtg
  • 9 O. Hamrobekov 29 yr
    Bunyodkor · Super League
    56 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.051552795031055rtg)
  • 11 O. Orunov 25 yr
    Persepolis FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    34 caps · 4G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg)
  • 3 K. Alijonov 28 yr
    Pakhtakor · Super League
    37 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.3rtg)
  • 13 S. Nasrullayev 27 yr
    Nasaf · Super League
    33 caps · 1G · 22 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.3125rtg)
  • 8 J. Iskanderov €1.0M 32 yr
    Neftchi · Super League
    30 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.385714285714285rtg)  |  club 2G
  • 17 D. Khamdamov €750k 29 yr
    Pakhtakor · Super League
    27 caps · 2G · 3 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.415714285714286rtg)
  • 6 A. Mozgovoy €1.4M 26 yr
    Nasaf · Super League
    17 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.427522935779817rtg)
+ 3 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 5
  • 14 E. Shomurodov Top scorer €5.0M 30 yr
    Başakşehir · Süper Lig
    102 caps · 41G · 24 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.569036697247706rtg)  |  club 22G · 5A · 7.18 rtg
  • 21 I. Sergeev €1.2M 32 yr
    Pakhtakor · Super League
    64 caps · 14G · 11 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.74rtg)  |  club 7G
  • 22 A. Fayzullaev 22 yr
    Başakşehir · Süper Lig
    35 caps · 8G · 26 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.768392370572207rtg)  |  club 3G · 3A · 6.94 rtg
  • 19 A. Ganiyev 27 yr
    Al Bataeh · Pro League
    16 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.659027777777777rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.82 rtg
  • 20 A. Amonov 28 yr
    Bunyodkor · Super League
    11 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.5rtg)
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
MID · additional
  • 23 S. Esanov 23 yr
  • 24 B. Karimov 18 yr
    Surkhon
  • 10 Ruslanbek Jiyanov 24 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 1–3 v COD
L 0–5 v POR
L 1–3 v COL
L 1–2 @ NED
L 0–2 @ CAN
W 0–0 vs Venezuela

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(UZB win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-17 H vs Colombia (COL) 11.5% 23.1%
2026-06-23 A vs Portugal (POR) 9.6% 19.0%
2026-06-27 A vs DR Congo (COD) 28.1% 32.1%

What the squad is worth

16 of 26 valued
Squad market value
€51.9M
Rank in the field
37 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

20 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
49.2/100
vs model strength -21.0
Top-5 leagues
9%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Super League Uzbekistan 12 48.2% 38
Süper Lig Turkey 2 25.1% 60
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates 2 11.6% 40
Premier League England 1 8.9% 100
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran 2 4.9% 38
Cup Uzbekistan 1 1.3% 38

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -21.0 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

5 verified outlets for Uzbekistan (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.