← Group H

Group H · URU

Uruguay

Strength

81.7

± 1.9

Attack

79.0

0–100

Defense

82.7

0–100

P(champion)

3.14%

6.9% reach final

Strength trajectory

81.7 → 82.2 · +0.5

2023-03-31 range 81.3–83.0 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

3.14%

to lift

Polymarket

0.6%

implied · +2.5pp

Kalshi

0.8%

implied · +2.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

26.4%

R16

45.8%

Quarter

26.2%

Semi

14.3%

Final

6.9%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Centenario

Montevideo · 60,235 seats (WC avg 55,865; +4,370)

Age profile

mean 27.8 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 F. Muslera €750k 39 yr

Estudiantes L.P. · Liga Profesional Argentina

133 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.5rtg)
1 S. Rochet €3.5M 32 yr

Internacional · Serie A

35 caps · 22 since 2024 (7.11rtg)
12 S. Mele €2.0M 28 yr

Junior · Primera A

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.08rtg)

DEF Defenders · 7

2 J. Giménez €22.0M 30 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

100 caps · 8G · 19 since 2024 (8G/1A · 6.95rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.99 rtg
17 M. Viña €10.0M 28 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

45 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.3rtg)
16 M. Olivera €18.0M 28 yr

Napoli · Serie A

38 caps · 2G · 26 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.700000000000001rtg)
4 R. Araújo €70.0M 26 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

29 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.27rtg) | club 3G · 6.9 rtg
13 G. Varela €2.0M 32 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

31 caps · 17 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 0G · 4A · 7.1 rtg
3 S. Cáceres €4.5M 26 yr

Club America · Liga MX

25 caps · 22 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.6rtg)
24 S. Bueno €10.0M 27 yr

Wolves · Premier League

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.04rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.77 rtg

MID Midfielders · 10

8 F. Valverde Top minutes €120.0M 27 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

74 caps · 9G · 25 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.5rtg) | club 5G · 8A · 7.33 rtg
10 G. de Arrascaeta Top scorer €14.0M 31 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

60 caps · 13G · 18 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.05rtg) | club 18G · 14A · 7.73 rtg
6 R. Bentancur 28 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

74 caps · 3G · 20 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.76 rtg
7 N. de la Cruz €8.0M 28 yr

Flamengo · Supercopa do Brasil

35 caps · 5G · 16 since 2024 (3G/5A · 6.9rtg) | club 5G · 7.376 rtg
20 M. Araújo €22.0M 25 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

29 caps · 4G · 27 since 2024 (3G/6A · 7.5rtg) | club 5G · 4A · 6.84 rtg
5 M. Ugarte €30.0M 24 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

36 caps · 1G · 28 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.2rtg)
14 A. Canobbio €8.0M 27 yr

Fluminense · Serie A

20 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 6.91 rtg
26 R. Zalazar 26 yr

SC Braga · Primeira Liga

7 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.87rtg) | club 16G · 5A · 7.31 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 6

9 D. Núñez €70.0M 26 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League

38 caps · 13G · 22 since 2024 (10G/2A · 7.15rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 6.91 rtg
18 B. Rodríguez €50k 25 yr

Club America · Liga MX

39 caps · 4G · 20 since 2024 (4G/2A · 6.700000000000001rtg) | club 13G · 7A · 7.28 rtg
11 F. Pellistri €7.0M 24 yr

Panathinaikos · Super League 1

39 caps · 2G · 27 since 2024 (2G/4A · 7.07rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.55 rtg
22 J. Piquerez €12.0M 27 yr

Palmeiras · Serie A

19 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.81rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 7.06 rtg
19 R. Aguirre €4.5M 31 yr

Club America · Liga MX

11 caps · 3G · 11 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.0rtg) | club 4G · 6.57 rtg
21 F. Viñas €4.0M 27 yr

Oviedo · La Liga

12 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.3rtg) | club 9G · 1A · 6.95 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

15 E. Martínez 26 yr

Palmeiras · 10c
25 J. Sanabria 25 yr

Atletico San Luis · 6c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 v KSA

D 0–0 v ALG

D 1–1 @ ENG

L 1–5 @ USA

D 0–0 @ MEX

W 2–1 v UZB

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(URU win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	A vs Saudi Arabia (KSA)	58.2%	27.7%
2026-06-21	H vs Cape Verde (CPV)	60.6%	26.7%
2026-06-26	H vs Spain (ESP)	22.4%	28.4%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€469.3M

Rank in the field

10 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

73.5/100

vs model strength -8.2

Top-5 leagues

32%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Serie A	Brazil	7	25.8%	70
Liga MX	Mexico	4	17.4%	50
La Liga	Spain	4	16.9%	95
Premier League	England	3	12.1%	100
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	9.4%	70
Supercopa do Brasil	Brazil	1	4.1%	70
Liga Profesional Argentina	Argentina	1	3.9%	62
Primera A	Colombia	1	3.5%	50
Serie A	Italy	1	3.1%	88
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	2.8%	60
Super League 1	Greece	1	0.7%	55

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -8.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Uruguay (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.