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Group C · MAR

Morocco

Strength
81.9
± 1.8
Attack
77.0
0–100
Defense
84.8
0–100
P(champion)
2.53%
6.1% reach final
Strength trajectory
79.4 → 81.6 · +2.2
2023-03-31 range 79.0–81.6 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
2.53%
to lift
Polymarket
2.7%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
2.1%
implied · +0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
23.0%
R16
47.6%
Quarter
27.6%
Semi
13.6%
Final
6.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Stade Mohammed V
Casablanca · 67,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +11,135)
Age profile
mean 25.5 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 Y. Bounou €9.0M 34 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    75 caps · 21 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
  • 12 M. Mohamedi 36 yr
    Renaissance Berkane · Botola Pro
    44 caps · 5 since 2024 (7.02rtg)
  • 22 A. Tagnaouti 29 yr
    3 caps
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 2 A. Hakimi €80.0M 27 yr
    Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
    86 caps · 11G · 19 since 2024 (2G/6A · 7.258064516129032rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.79 rtg
  • 3 N. Mazraoui €22.0M 28 yr
    Manchester United · Premier League
    41 caps · 3G · 16 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.053211009174311rtg)
  • 19 Y. Belammari €1.2M 27 yr
    Al Ahly · Premier League
    13 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.7rtg)
  • 26 A. Salah-Eddine €12.0M 24 yr
    PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie
    10 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.6rtg)
  • 18 C. Riad €12.0M 22 yr
    Crystal Palace · Premier League
    6 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.909677419354839rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.57 rtg
  • 14 I. Diop €10.0M 28 yr
    Fulham · Premier League
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.824675324675325rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.64 rtg
  • 13 Z. El Ouahdi Top minutes €4.5M 24 yr
    Genk · Jupiler Pro League
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.299999999999999rtg)  |  club 8G · 4A · 7.09 rtg
  • 25 R. Halhal €100k 22 yr
    KV Mechelen · Jupiler Pro League
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.5rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.84 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 9
  • 4 S. Amrabat €22.0M 29 yr
    Real Betis · La Liga
    74 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.3rtg)
  • 8 A. Ounahi €10.0M 25 yr
    Girona · La Liga
    49 caps · 8G · 19 since 2024 (3G/5A · 6.4511627906976745rtg)  |  club 5G · 2A · 7.27 rtg
  • 10 Brahim Díaz €40.0M 26 yr
    Real Madrid · La Liga
    25 caps · 14G · 19 since 2024 (13G/1A · 7.247286821705426rtg)  |  club 1G · 6A · 6.68 rtg
  • 23 B. El Khannouss €30.0M 21 yr
    VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
    37 caps · 3G · 21 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.899065420560748rtg)  |  club 4G · 5A · 6.98 rtg
  • 24 N. El Aynaoui €8.0M 24 yr
    AS Roma · Serie A
    15 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.066233766233767rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.7 rtg
  • 7 C. Talbi €22.0M 20 yr
    Sunderland · Premier League
    6 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.3rtg)  |  club 4G · 1A · 6.63 rtg
  • 15 S. El Mourabet €8.0M 20 yr
    Strasbourg · Ligue 1
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.803846153846154rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.95 rtg
  • 6 A. Bouaddi €40.0M 18 yr
    Lille · Ligue 1
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.9rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.78 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 5
  • 20 A. El Kaabi Top scorer €5.0M 32 yr
    Olympiakos Piraeus · Super League 1
    64 caps · 28G · 18 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 18G · 2A · 6.8 rtg
  • 9 S. Rahimi €6.0M 29 yr
    Al Ain · Pro League
    38 caps · 16G · 18 since 2024 (10G/2A · 6.458620689655173rtg)  |  club 2G · 6.98 rtg
  • 11 I. Saibari €32.0M 24 yr
    PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie
    32 caps · 10G · 19 since 2024 (7G/1A · 7.351298701298701rtg)  |  club 15G · 8A · 7.21 rtg
  • 16 Gessime Yassine €12.0M 20 yr
    Dunkerque · Ligue 2
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.8rtg)  |  club 2G · 6A · 7.08 rtg
  • 17 A. Sbaï 24 yr
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 5 M. Saâdane 29 yr
MID · additional
  • 21 A. Amaimouni 20 yr
    Hoffenheim II · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 1–1 v BRA
D 1–1 vs NOR
W 4–0 vs Madagascar
W 5–0 vs Burundi
W 2–1 v PAR
D 1–1 v ECU

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(MAR win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

24 of 26 valued
Squad market value
€437.8M
Rank in the field
13 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

24 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
73.7/100
vs model strength -8.2
Top-5 leagues
54%
Unrated leagues
10%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Ligue 1 France 4 19.2% 80
La Liga Spain 4 17.5% 95
Jupiler Pro League Belgium 2 15.5% 65
Premier League England 4 10.5% 100
Eredivisie Netherlands 2 8.6% 72
King's Cup (unrated) 1 7.4% 30
Super League 1 Greece 1 5.6% 55
Bundesliga Germany 1 4.3% 90
Serie A Italy 1 2.7% 88
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates 1 2.3% 40
3. Liga (unrated) Germany 1 2.3% 30
Ligue 2 France 1 2.1% 48
Premier League Egypt 1 1.9% 40

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -8.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Morocco (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.