← Group G

Group G · EGY · outside top-16

Egypt

Strength

75.9

± 1.7

Attack

72.4

0–100

Defense

78.3

0–100

P(champion)

0.37%

1.3% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.9 → 75.5 · -0.4

2023-03-31 range 74.7–76.0 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.37%

to lift

Polymarket

0.2%

implied · +0.1pp

Kalshi

0.2%

implied · +0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

16.0%

R16

33.1%

Quarter

11.6%

Semi

3.9%

Final

1.3%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Cairo International Stadium

Cairo · 75,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +19,135)

Age profile

mean 28.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 4

1 Mohamed El Shenawy €250k* 37 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

62 caps · 12 since 2024 (7.17rtg)
23 Mostafa Shobeir €100k 25 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

8 caps · 8 since 2024 (7.400558659217876rtg)
16 Al Mahdi Soliman 38 yr

Zamalek SC · Premier League

+ 1 more in the broader pool

DEF Defenders · 9

14 Hamdi Fathy €1.8M 31 yr

Al Wakrah · Stars League

61 caps · 4G · 19 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.550000000000001rtg) | club 1G · 7.26 rtg
5 Rami Rabia €400k 32 yr

Al Ain · Pro League

36 caps · 7G · 14 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.8999999999999995rtg) | club 1G · 7.19 rtg
6 Mohamed Abdelmonem €3.0M 26 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

35 caps · 3G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.5rtg)
13 Ahmed Fatouh €200k 27 yr

Zamalek SC · Premier League

37 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.579878048780487rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
3 Mohamed Hany €1.5M 29 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

34 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.245454545454545rtg) | club 0G · 5A · 7.06 rtg
2 Yasser Ibrahim €275k 32 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

16 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.8999999999999995rtg) | club 2G · 7.11 rtg
15 Karim Hafez 29 yr

Pyramids FC · Premier League

12 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.5rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.96 rtg
4 Hossam Abdelmaguid €2.0M 24 yr

Zamalek SC · Premier League

9 caps · 8 since 2024 (7.03rtg) | club 4G · 7.31 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 8

7 Trézéguet €4.5M 31 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

86 caps · 22G · 17 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.5rtg) | club 11G · 7.04 rtg
19 Marwan Attia €400k 27 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

32 caps · 1G · 18 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.685714285714286rtg)
8 Emam Ashour €2.0M 27 yr

Al Ahly · Premier League

29 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.685882352941176rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 7.46 rtg
17 Mohanad Lasheen 29 yr

Pyramids FC · Premier League

21 caps · 8 since 2024 (7.0636363636363635rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 7.21 rtg
21 Mahmoud Saber €250k* 24 yr

Masr · Premier League

9 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.91rtg) | club 5G · 6A · 7.13 rtg
18 Nabil Emad Dunga 29 yr

Al Najma · Pro League

9 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.16rtg)
11 Mostafa Zico 28 yr

Pyramids FC · Premier League

3 caps · 2G · 3 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.6000000000000005rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 6.59 rtg
12 H. Hassan €1.5M 23 yr

Oviedo · La Liga

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.3rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 6.81 rtg

ATT Attackers · 5

10 Mohamed Salah Top scorer €30.0M 33 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

81 caps · 62G · 12 since 2024 (6G/2A · 6.679999999999999rtg) | club 7G · 7A · 6.93 rtg
22 Omar Marmoush €65.0M 26 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

48 caps · 8G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.66rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 6.7 rtg
20 Ibrahim Adel €2.5M 24 yr

FC Nordsjaelland · Superliga

24 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.299999999999999rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
9 H. Abdelkarim 17 yr

—

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
25 Ahmed Zizo €5.0M 30 yr

—

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

GK · additional

26 M. Alaa 26 yr

DEF · additional

24 T. Alaa 23 yr

Masr · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 v BEL

L 1–2 @ BRA

W 1–0 vs Russia

D 0–0 @ ESP

W 4–0 @ KSA

L 0–0 v Nigeria

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(EGY win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	A vs Belgium (BEL)	20.5%	27.3%
2026-06-21	A vs New Zealand (NZL)	52.1%	30.7%
2026-06-26	H vs Iran (IRN)	32.0%	32.4%

What the squad is worth

24 of 26 valued

Squad market value

€129.1M

Rank in the field

31 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

22 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

50.4/100

vs model strength -25.5

Top-5 leagues

16%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	Egypt	15	72.8%	40
Premier League	England	2	9.8%	100
La Liga	Spain	1	6.6%	95
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	3.1%	60
Pro League	United-Arab-Emirates	1	2.8%	40
Stars League	Qatar	1	2.6%	40
Superliga	Denmark	1	2.1%	50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -25.5 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Egypt (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.