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Group E · ECU

Ecuador

Strength
79.9
± 1.9
Attack
75.8
0–100
Defense
82.4
0–100
P(champion)
1.97%
4.6% reach final
Strength trajectory
79.0 → 80.4 · +1.4
2023-03-31 range 78.8–80.8 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
1.97%
to lift
Polymarket
0.4%
implied · +1.5pp
Kalshi
0.3%
implied · +1.6pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-16.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
28.3%
R16
49.1%
Quarter
22.5%
Semi
10.7%
Final
4.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Quito · 41,575 seats (WC avg 55,865; -14,290)
Age profile
mean 25.1 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 H. Galíndez €250k* 38 yr
    Huracan · Copa Argentina
    35 caps · 19 since 2024 (7.0rtg)
  • 12 M. Ramírez €250k* 25 yr
    Kifisia · Super League 1
    7 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.95rtg)
  • 22 G. Valle 29 yr
    LDU de Quito · Liga Pro
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.28rtg)
DEF Defenders · 7
  • 7 P. Estupiñán €14.0M 27 yr
    AC Milan · Serie A
    53 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.93rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.72 rtg
  • 21 A. Franco €4.5M 27 yr
    Atletico-MG · Serie A
    58 caps · 1G · 28 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.2rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.9 rtg
  • 2 F. Torres 28 yr
    Corinthians · Serie A
    48 caps · 5G · 24 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.96rtg)
  • 17 A. Preciado €5.0M 27 yr
    Sparta Praha · Czech Liga
    58 caps · 27 since 2024 (6.508219178082192rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
  • 6 W. Pacho €70.0M 24 yr
    Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
    35 caps · 2G · 32 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg)
  • 4 J. Ordoñez €6.0M 21 yr
    Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League
    17 caps · 17 since 2024 (6.9rtg)  |  club 3G · 6.96 rtg
  • 25 J. Porozo €3.3M 25 yr
    Club Tijuana · Liga MX
    11 caps · 2G · 4 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.34406779661017rtg)  |  club 2G · 6.97 rtg
MID Midfielders · 7
  • 23 M. Caicedo Top minutes €110.0M 24 yr
    Chelsea · Premier League
    61 caps · 3G · 29 since 2024 (3G/4A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 7.17 rtg
  • 3 P. Hincapié €50.0M 23 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    52 caps · 3G · 25 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.92 rtg
  • 14 A. Minda €3.0M 22 yr
    Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League
    20 caps · 2G · 20 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
  • 15 P. Vite €6.0M 23 yr
    U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX
    17 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.5rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
  • 5 J. Alcívar €2.0M 26 yr
    Independiente del Valle · Liga Pro
    10 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.84rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
  • 18 D. Castillo €5.5M 21 yr
    FC Midtjylland · Superliga
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.91rtg)  |  club 4G · 4A · 6.87 rtg
  • 26 Y. Medina €4.0M 21 yr
    Genk · Jupiler Pro League
    5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.54rtg)  |  club 0G · 3A · 6.73 rtg
ATT Attackers · 9
  • 13 E. Valencia Top scorer €3.8M 36 yr
    CF Pachuca · Liga MX
    117 caps · 50G · 26 since 2024 (8G/2A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 8G · 1A · 6.85 rtg
  • 19 G. Plata €5.0M 25 yr
    Flamengo · Serie A
    50 caps · 8G · 16 since 2024 (3G/3A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 4G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
  • 11 K. Rodríguez €5.0M 25 yr
    Union St. Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League
    33 caps · 1G · 28 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.277586206896552rtg)  |  club 10G · 2A · 6.71 rtg
  • 9 J. Yeboah €1.5M 25 yr
    Venezia · Serie B
    25 caps · 3G · 25 since 2024 (3G/6A · 7.309523809523809rtg)  |  club 10G · 9A · 7.31 rtg
  • 10 K. Páez €8.0M 18 yr
    Strasbourg · Ligue 1
    25 caps · 2G · 25 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.89rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.5 rtg
  • 16 J. Caicedo €3.5M 28 yr
    Sporting Gijon · Segunda División
    18 caps · 3G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.51rtg)
  • 20 N. Angulo €7.0M 22 yr
    Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League
    14 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.304081632653061rtg)  |  club 6G · 5A · 7.26 rtg
  • 8 A. Valencia €1.0M 22 yr
    Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League
    2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.1rtg)  |  club 4G · 2A · 6.94 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
ATT · additional
  • 24 Jeremy Arévalo 20 yr
    Racing Santander · 3c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 0–1 v CIV
W 3–0 vs Guatemala
W 2–1 v KSA
D 1–1 @ NED
D 1–1 v MAR
W 2–0 v NZL

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(ECU win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

25 of 26 valued
Squad market value
€321.6M
Rank in the field
20 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
63.8/100
vs model strength -16.1
Top-5 leagues
18%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Jupiler Pro League Belgium 6 22.5% 65
Liga MX Mexico 3 16.3% 50
Serie A Brazil 3 10.4% 70
Premier League England 2 10.1% 100
Copa Argentina Argentina 1 7.5% 62
Liga Pro Ecuador 2 6.1% 45
Serie B Italy 1 5.8% 50
Super League 1 Greece 1 5.5% 55
Ligue 1 France 2 5.2% 80
Superliga Denmark 1 3.8% 50
Serie A Italy 1 2.3% 88
Segunda División Spain 2 2.3% 50
Czech Liga Czech-Republic 1 2.1% 48

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-16 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -16.1 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Ecuador (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.