← Group K

Group K · COL

Colombia

Strength

82.8

± 1.9

Attack

81.2

0–100

Defense

84.2

0–100

P(champion)

4.62%

9.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

81.6 → 82.8 · +1.2

2023-03-31 range 81.6–83.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

4.62%

to lift

Polymarket

3.4%

implied · +1.3pp

Kalshi

3.3%

implied · +1.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

39.7%

R16

56.1%

Quarter

32.8%

Semi

18.0%

Final

9.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Barranquilla · 46,788 seats (WC avg 55,865; -9,077)

Age profile

mean 29.2 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 D. Ospina €3.0M 37 yr

Atletico Nacional · Primera A

126 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.3rtg)
12 C. Vargas €450k 36 yr

Atlas · Liga MX

47 caps · 33 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.813307984790875rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.91 rtg
24 Á. Montero €200k 30 yr

Millonarios · Primera A

11 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.87rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.15 rtg

DEF Defenders · 8

23 D. Sánchez €18.0M 29 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

82 caps · 4G · 30 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.057034220532319rtg) | club 1G · 7.1 rtg
13 Y. Mina €3.0M 31 yr

Cagliari · Serie A

58 caps · 8G · 18 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.93rtg) | club 2G · 6.96 rtg
4 S. Arias €2.5M 33 yr

Bahia · Serie A

71 caps · 17 since 2024 (0G/3A · 7.3rtg)
2 D. Muñoz €27.0M 29 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

51 caps · 5G · 32 since 2024 (5G/1A · 7.16561797752809rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 6.91 rtg
17 J. Mojica Top minutes €1.8M 33 yr

Mallorca · La Liga

49 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.1192660550458715rtg) | club 0G · 4A · 6.68 rtg
3 J. Lucumí €17.0M 27 yr

Bologna · Serie A

44 caps · 1G · 32 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.008380952380953rtg) | club 1G · 7.0 rtg
22 D. Machado €4.0M 32 yr

Nantes · Ligue 1

16 caps · 11 since 2024 (7.2rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.64 rtg
18 W. Ditta 28 yr

Cruz Azul · Liga MX

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.95rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 7.01 rtg

MID Midfielders · 11

7 L. Díaz €70.0M 28 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

79 caps · 23G · 40 since 2024 (14G/5A · 6.863167938931298rtg) | club 15G · 14A · 7.28 rtg
16 J. Lerma €8.0M 31 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

70 caps · 5G · 35 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.8301310043668115rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.72 rtg
20 J. Quintero €2.5M 32 yr

America de Cali · Primera A

55 caps · 6G · 23 since 2024 (2G/4A · 7.488888888888889rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.46 rtg
11 J. Arias €15.0M 28 yr

Wolves · Premier League

43 caps · 6G · 37 since 2024 (6G/3A · 7.2901639344262295rtg) | club 1G · 6.63 rtg
6 R. Rios €25.0M 25 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

36 caps · 2G · 36 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.54485294117647rtg) | club 5G · 4A · 7.09 rtg
8 J. Carrascal €9.0M 27 yr

Flamengo · Serie A

26 caps · 2G · 20 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.72rtg) | club 2G · 5A · 7.15 rtg
5 K. Castaño €5.0M 25 yr

River Plate · Liga Profesional Argentina

29 caps · 25 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.91 rtg
21 J. Campaz €5.5M 25 yr

Rosario Central · Liga Profesional Argentina

12 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.4425rtg) | club 5G · 6.96 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 4

10 J. Rodríguez Top scorer €6.0M 34 yr

Leon · Liga MX

131 caps · 31G · 41 since 2024 (5G/16A · 7.12534435261708rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.31 rtg
9 J. Córdoba €10.0M 32 yr

FC Krasnodar · Premier League

24 caps · 6G · 24 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.24rtg) | club 17G · 6A · 7.19 rtg
25 L. Suárez €3.5M 28 yr

Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

17 caps · 4G · 13 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.593121693121694rtg) | club 28G · 6A · 7.42 rtg
19 C. Hernández 26 yr

Real Betis · La Liga

10 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.125rtg) | club 11G · 3A · 6.89 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

14 G. Puerta 22 yr

Racing Santander · 11c/1g
26 A. Gómez 23 yr

Vasco DA Gama · 8c/2g
15 J. Portilla 27 yr

Talleres Cordoba · 9c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 0–0 @ SUI

W 1–0 vs GHA

D 0–0 v POR

W 1–0 v COD

W 3–1 v UZB

W 2–0 vs JOR

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(COL win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	A vs Uzbekistan (UZB)	65.3%	23.1%
2026-06-23	H vs DR Congo (COD)	57.5%	27.5%
2026-06-27	H vs Portugal (POR)	31.7%	29.3%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€268.4M

Rank in the field

22 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

69.9/100

vs model strength -12.9

Top-5 leagues

34%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Liga MX	Mexico	3	14.6%	50
Primera A	Colombia	3	11.3%	50
Liga Profesional Argentina	Argentina	3	10.2%	62
La Liga	Spain	2	9.9%	95
Premier League	England	3	9.8%	100
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	9.3%	70
Serie A	Italy	2	8.3%	88
Serie A	Brazil	3	6.2%	70
Segunda División	Spain	1	5.0%	50
Premier League	Russia	1	4.6%	55
Bundesliga	Germany	1	4.6%	90
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	4.5%	60
Ligue 1	France	1	1.7%	80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -12.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: J. Córdoba, J. Córdoba.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Colombia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.