Norway vs France

The model's prior (53% France win) is supported by France's superior squad value (2nd vs 11th), a lopsided recent head-to-head (4-0 in 2014), and deeper key-player talent (Mbappé, Olise, Dembélé). Norway's recent form overperformance (+0.84 pts/match) is notable but came against weaker opponents (avg rank #30), and conditions are neutral. I nudge France down slightly to 55% because Norway's overperformance and Haaland's threat create some upset potential, but the structural talent gap keeps France as clear favourites. The model expects 1.68 goals for France and 0.92 for Norway, with 0-1 as the top scoreline (13%). France's defensive solidity and Norway's reliance on Haaland for goals suggest a low-scoring affair; 0-1, 1-1, and 0-2 are the most likely outcomes. I keep the scoreline distribution close to the model, as no factor pushes scoring higher or lower.

• Recent form
  Norway +0.84 pts/match vs expectation vs avg opp rank #30; France +0.32 vs avg opp rank #40. Norway's overperformance is stronger but against weaker opposition. → slightly favours Norway, but opposition quality gap limits signal
• Head-to-head
  Last 5 meetings: France 4-0 (2014), Norway 2-1 (2010), France 3-3 (1998), 0-0 (1995), 1-1 (1989). Most recent result is a heavy France win. → favours France
• Availability
  No injuries or absences reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Norway's Haaland (61G in 54 caps, 7.76 rating) is elite; France's Mbappé (57G in 93 caps, 8.38 rating) and Olise (15G/19A recent) are also top-tier. France has more depth in midfield/attack. → favours France
• Squad market value
  France ranks 2nd (98th pct), Norway 11th (79th pct); France's squad ~2.6x more valuable. This aligns with the model's away-favoured prior. → favours France
• Recent news
  Guardian article notes France may be dominant but Norway will provide a tougher test; Reuters poll favours France for tournament. No specific tactical or injury news changes outlook. → no bearing
• Conditions
  24°C feels 27°C, 75% humidity, 13.7 km/h wind, no rain. Mild conditions; no extreme heat or altitude. Gillette Stadium is open-air but conditions are moderate. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  Model gives France 53% win, market not supplied. Squad value gap (2nd vs 11th) and head-to-head support the model's away bias. No strong reason to diverge. → confirms model prior

• 0–1 21%
• 1–1 17%
• 0–2 16%
• 0–0 14%
• 1–2 13%
• 0–3 10%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.