Group B · Matchday 8 · 2026-06-18
Canada vs Qatar
Vancouver, Canada
Most likely scoreline
1–0
11.4%
61.6%
CAN win
20.6%
Draw
17.4%
QAT win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 11.4%
- 2–0 10.1%
- 1–1 8.5%
- 0–0 7.7%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
The agent’s call
3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chatCAN win
66.7%
Draw
20.7%
QAT win
12.7%
Canada are clearly the stronger side based on squad value (7.6x), recent form (in line vs underperforming), and head-to-head. The model's 62% home win is a reasonable baseline, but the squad gap and Qatar's poor form justify a slight increase to 65%. Davies' limited fitness is a minor concern but not enough to shift the balance significantly. Qatar's late draw with Switzerland shows resilience, but they remain heavy underdogs. Canada's expected goals (2.10) and Qatar's (0.88) suggest a low-scoring win for Canada. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 and 2-0, with 1-1 also possible if Qatar's defense holds. Canada's attack (David, Larin) should be enough to break through Qatar's defense, but clean sheets are likely given Qatar's offensive struggles.
What the agent weighed
-
Recent formCanada are WDDWD, in line with expectations, vs avg opponent rank #54; Qatar are DLLDD, underperforming by -0.50 pts/match vs avg opponent rank #70. → favours Canada
-
Head-to-headOnly meeting: Canada 2-0 Qatar in 2022. → favours Canada
-
AvailabilityNo injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
-
Key playersCanada's key players (David, Davies, Larin, Osorio, Buchanan) play at higher club levels (Juventus, Bayern, Southampton, Toronto, Villarreal) than Qatar's (Afif, Ali, Al Haydos, Khoukhi, Muntari) who mostly play in Qatar's domestic league. → favours Canada
-
Squad market valueCanada ranks 30th (38th pct) vs Qatar 46th (4th pct); Canada's squad is ~7.6x more valuable. → favours Canada
-
Recent newsAlphonso Davies is limited in practice due to hamstring (source: greenwichtime.com), but he is in the squad and expected to play; Canada beat Uzbekistan 2-0 in a friendly (apnews.com); Qatar drew 1-1 with Switzerland via a stoppage-time goal (apnews.com, theguardian.com, reuters.com). → slightly favours Qatar (Davies not fully fit) but overall neutral
-
ConditionsBC Place is a climate-controlled dome; 22.1°C, clear, 51% humidity, 16.5 km/h wind – all neutral. → no bearing
-
Model vs marketModel gives Canada 62% win, 2.10-0.88 xG; no market lines supplied. Squad value gap (7.6x) and Qatar's poor form suggest Canada may be slightly undervalued by model. → favours Canada (small upward adjustment)
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on
tavily —
9 sources kept:
-
“Canada vs Qatar 2026-06-18 lineup injuries”
match · 3 hits
Late fitness or lineup changes could shift match outcome.
-
“Canada squad news June 2026 suspension”
CAN · 3 hits
Key player suspension or return could alter Canada's strength.
-
“Qatar squad news June 2026 suspension”
QAT · 3 hits
Key player suspension or return could alter Qatar's strength.
- MATCH: Alphonso Davies still limited in practice as Canada prepares to face Qatar at the World Cup - Greenwich Time — # Alphonso Davies still limited in practice as Canada prepares to face Qatar at the World Cup. VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) — Canada captain Alphonso Davies remained limited in the team greenwichtime.com · Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:48:39 GMT
- MATCH: Canada vs Ireland: How to Watch, Prediction, Odds, Friendly Preview - FOX Sports — # Canada vs Ireland: How to Watch, Prediction, Odds, Friendly Preview. Canada and Ireland will face off in an international friendly ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Canada is hosting its first ever World Cup tournam foxsports.com · Fri, 05 Jun 2026 11:53:18 GMT
- MATCH: Alphonso Davies Named To Canada's World Cup Squad Despite Hamstring Injury - FOX Sports — FIFA Men's World Cup. FIFA Men's World Cup. FIFA Men's World Cup. # Alphonso Davies Named To Canada's World Cup Squad Despite Hamstring Injury. Alphonso Davies was named to Canada's World Cup squad although its foxsports.com · Sat, 30 May 2026 00:35:50 GMT
- CAN: Osorio, Nelson score in Canada’s 2-0 friendly victory over Uzbekistan - AP News — Test Your News I.Q. 2026 Elections Election Results Election calendar White House Congress Supreme Court The latest AP-NORC polls Ground Game. Canada’s Ismael Kone (8) and Uzbekistan’s Otabek Shukurov, second from left apnews.com · Tue, 02 Jun 2026 03:34:03 GMT
- CAN: Larin scores in 78th minute to rally Canada to 1-1 draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina in World Cup opener - AP News — Test Your News I.Q. 2026 Elections Election Results Election calendar White House Congress Supreme Court The latest AP-NORC polls Ground Game. Canada’s Cyle Larin (9) celebrates after scor apnews.com · Fri, 12 Jun 2026 21:09:07 GMT
- CAN: World Cup 2026 squads: Every player at this summer’s tournament - Yahoo Sports — Countries have started naming their 26-man squads for World Cup 2026 in the United States, Canada and Mexico this summer. Each country must provide Fifa with a final squad of between 23 and 26 players (at least three of sports.yahoo.com · Sat, 16 May 2026 09:42:50 GMT
- QAT: Boualem Khoukhi's goal on header in stoppage time earns Qatar a 1-1 World Cup draw with Switzerland - AP News — Test Your News I.Q. 2026 Elections Election Results Election calendar White House Congress Supreme Court The latest AP-NORC polls Ground Game. Switzerland’s Zeki Amdouni reacts after the e apnews.com · Sat, 13 Jun 2026 21:23:36 GMT
- QAT: Khoukhi late show earns Qatar dramatic World Cup draw against Switzerland - The Guardian — Qatar snatched their first ever World Cup point with a stoppage-time goal to draw 1-1 against Switzerland in an energetic Group B opener. Switzerland went ahead in the 17th minute when Breel Embolo coolly stro theguardian.com · Sat, 13 Jun 2026 21:26:32 GMT
- QAT: Qatar score late to clinch draw with stunned Switzerland - Reuters — Item 1 of 5 Soccer Football - FIFA World Cup 2026 - Group B - Qatar v Switzerland - San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, California, U.S. - June 13, 2026 Qatar's Pedro Miguel and Ahmed Fathy celebrate after Boualem Khoukhi reuters.com · Sat, 13 Jun 2026 21:37:40 GMT
Agent scorelines
- 1–0 19%
- 2–0 18%
- 2–1 15%
- 1–1 15%
- 3–0 11%
- 0–0 11%
generated 2026-06-16
Last 5 — CAN
-0.08 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #54
- VEN #45 +1.6
- ICE #61 -0.9
- TUN #48 -0.6
- UZB #54 +1.3
- BIH #63 -0.9
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 4
Last 5 — QAT
-0.50 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #70
- SYR #92 -0.8
- TUN #48 -1.1
- REP #50 -0.7
- EL #142 -1.2
- SUI #16 +0.5
GF / GA last 10: 6 / 14
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2022-09-23 Canada 2–0 Qatar
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7.7
5.8
2.6
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
11.4
8.5
3.8
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
10.1
7.5
3.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
7.0
5.2
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
4.1
3.1
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
2.2
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CAN goals; columns = QAT goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.1
CAN
0.88
QAT
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.