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Group L · Matchday 7 · 2026-06-17

Ghana vs Panama

Toronto, Canada · neutral venue

Most likely scoreline
0–0 13.7%
40.8%
GHA win
28.5%
Draw
30.6%
PAN win
Top scorelines
  • 0–0 13.7%
  • 1–0 13.4%
  • 0–1 11.3%
  • 1–1 11.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat
GHA win
34.3%
Draw
30.0%
PAN win
35.7%

The model prior favours Ghana (41%) but the critical news of Thomas Partey's visa denial removes Ghana's midfield anchor, significantly weakening their spine. Ghana's recent form is poor (LLLLD) against strong opponents, while Panama is in decent form (DWLWD) against weaker sides. The squad value gap (5.5x) is real but Partey's absence and Ghana's form slump narrow it. I shift the prior toward a more even match, slightly favouring Panama due to the Partey blow and Ghana's underperformance. Outcome probabilities: Ghana 35%, draw 30%, Panama 35%. The model's expected goals (Ghana 1.22, Panama 0.99) suggest a low-scoring affair, but Partey's absence likely reduces Ghana's attacking output and defensive solidity. Panama's recent form suggests they can score. Most likely scorelines are 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1, with a slight tilt toward draws and narrow margins.

What the agent weighed
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on tavily — 8 sources kept:
  • “Ghana vs Panama 2026-06-17 lineup injuries” match · 3 hits
    Late fitness or lineup changes could significantly alter match outcome.
  • “Ghana squad 2026 World Cup injuries suspensions” GHA · 3 hits
    Key player absences would shift Ghana's strength.
  • “Panama squad 2026 World Cup injuries suspensions” PAN · 2 hits
    Key player absences would shift Panama's strength.
Agent scorelines
generated 2026-06-16
Last 5 — GHA
-0.37 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #26
  • KOR #34 -0.8
  • AUT #23 -0.7
  • GER #7 -0.3
  • MEX #21 -0.7
  • WAL #43 +0.1
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 14
Last 5 — PAN
+0.20 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #69
  • RSA #65 -0.0
  • RSA #65 +2.0
  • BRA #3 -0.1
  • DOM #150 +0.5
  • BIH #63 -0.5
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 16
Head-to-head (last 5)

No prior meetings in the dataset.

▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.7
11.3
5.6
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
1
13.4
11.0
5.5
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
2
7.8
6.5
3.2
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
3.6
3.0
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
1.4
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Rows = GHA goals; columns = PAN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.22
GHA
0.99
PAN

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.