Group F · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14
Netherlands vs Japan
Arlington, United States · neutral venue
Full time
NED 2–2 JPN
The agent called
Netherlands
(40%) —
Better than the model
call wrong
The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.
Most likely scoreline
1–0
12.0%
45.7%
NED win
25.7%
Draw
28.6%
JPN win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 12.0%
- 0–0 10.6%
- 1–1 10.5%
- 0–1 9.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
The agent’s call
3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chatNED win
40.0%
Draw
28.0%
JPN win
32.0%
The model's prior favours Netherlands (45%) but Japan's recent form is far superior (+1.28 pts/match overperformance vs -0.42 for Netherlands) and they have been beating stronger opposition. However, Japan's key absences (captain Endo retired, star Mitoma injured) significantly weaken their squad, tilting the balance back toward Netherlands. The head-to-head is dated and not decisive. I adjust the prior down for Netherlands and up for Japan, settling on a tighter contest: home win 40%, draw 28%, away win 32%. Both teams have attacking quality but Japan's missing creators (Mitoma, Endo) may reduce their scoring threat. Netherlands' defence led by van Dijk is solid. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%) reflecting a close match, with 1-0 (10%) and 0-1 (9%) also plausible. Low-scoring draws and narrow margins dominate.
What the agent weighed
-
Recent formNetherlands recent form WWDLW with -0.42 pts/match vs expectation against opponents avg rank #51; Japan recent form WWWWW with +1.28 pts/match vs expectation against opponents avg rank #47. → favours Japan
-
Head-to-headNetherlands unbeaten in last three meetings (2 wins, 1 draw) dating back to 2009-2013, but all matches were over a decade ago. → slightly favours Netherlands
-
AvailabilityNo injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
-
Key playersNetherlands have high-quality attackers like Depay (Corinthians), Gakpo (Liverpool), and van Dijk (Liverpool) but also weaker recent form from Malen (AS Roma) and Weghorst (Ajax). Japan have key players like Ueda (Feyenoord), Ito (Genk), Kamada, Doan (Eintracht Frankfurt), and Ogawa (NEC Nijmegen), but are missing captain Endo (Liverpool) and star Mitoma (Brighton) due to injury/retirement. → favours Netherlands
-
Recent newsJapan captain Wataru Endo is out of the World Cup and retired from international duty (bozemandailychronicle.com). Star forward Kaoru Mitoma's fitness was uncertain and he is not in the squad (amp.foxsports.com, washingtonpost.com). Netherlands squad excludes Jeremie Frimpong but includes Depay and Gakpo (espn.com, sports.yahoo.com). → favours Netherlands
-
ConditionsAT&T Stadium has a climate-controlled roof, neutralising weather. → no bearing
-
Model vs marketModel prior: home 45%, draw 26%, away 28%. No market lines supplied. → no bearing
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on
tavily —
9 sources kept:
-
“Netherlands vs Japan 2026-06-14 team news injuries suspensions”
match · 3 hits
Late fitness updates or suspensions could shift the match forecast.
-
“Netherlands squad 2026 June injuries”
NED · 3 hits
Key Dutch players' availability is unknown and could affect the forecast.
-
“Japan squad 2026 June injuries”
JPN · 3 hits
Key Japanese players' availability is unknown and could affect the forecast.
- MATCH: Netherlands vs. Japan - Live Score - June 14, 2026 - FOX Sports — Access and manage your favorites here. ## Netherlands vs Japan. Tomorrow at 8:00 PM on. Japan kicks off Group Stage against Netherlands. # Netherlands vs. ## MATCHUP## ODDS## STANDINGS. ### Group F Preview: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, foxsports.com · Sat, 13 Jun 2026 11:40:15 GMT
- MATCH: Netherlands next World Cup match: Fixture schedule, start time, draw bracket as Oranje face Japan - sportingnews.com — The Netherlands will be hoping to challenge for the latter stages of the World Cup when their campaign gets underway on June 21. The Oranje boast the ignominious record of being the sportingnews.com · Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:00:01 GMT
- MATCH: Japan manager made 'final decision' to send Wataru Endo home from World Cup - USA Today — # Japan manager made 'final decision' to send Wataru Endo home from World Cup. June 13, 2026, 6:06 p.m. ET. ARLINGTON, TX — Japan manager Hajime Moriyasu said he made the final call to send Liverpool midfielder usatoday.com · Sat, 13 Jun 2026 22:06:00 GMT
- NED: Netherlands confirm World Cup 2026 squad: Jeremie Frimpong out, Crysencio Summerville picked - ESPN — Frimpong left out of Dutch WC squad; Depay in. USMNT's final World Cup roster is classic Pochettino -- and it comes with big risks. # Netherlands confirm World Cup 2026 squad: Jeremie Frimpong out, espn.com · Wed, 27 May 2026 17:06:00 GMT
- NED: 🚨 Netherlands squad for the World Cup, Frimpong the surprise omission - Yahoo Sports — * Thunder top Spurs in Game 5. # 🚨 Netherlands squad for the World Cup, Frimpong the surprise omission. This Wednesday afternoon, Netherlands head coach Ronald Koeman unveiled the list of 26 players selected for t sports.yahoo.com · Wed, 27 May 2026 12:25:00 GMT
- NED: World Cup 2026 squad lists: England, Scotland, Brazil, USA, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, Argentina, Portugal and more - Sky Sports — # World Cup 2026 squad lists: England, Scotland, Brazil, USA, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, Argentina, Portugal and more. Teams must submit World Cup sq skysports.com · Wed, 13 May 2026 09:37:46 GMT
- JPN: Japan captain Wataru Endo is out of the World Cup and retires from international duty - Bozeman Daily Chronicle — You have permission to edit this article. Japan's Wataru Endo addresses fans before a training session Monday, June 8, 2026, in Nashville, Tenn., ahead of the World Cup soccer tournament bozemandailychronicle.com · Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:09:00 GMT
- JPN: Japan Waits on Star Forward Mitoma's Fitness For 2026 World Cup After Injury - FOX Sports — # Japan Waits on Star Forward Mitoma's Fitness For 2026 World Cup After Injury. Japan coach Hajime Moriyasu has an anxious wait on the fitness of star forward Kaoru Mitoma before naming a World Cup squad on F amp.foxsports.com · Mon, 11 May 2026 13:44:11 GMT
- JPN: Japan waits on star forward Mitoma's fitness for World Cup after injury in Brighton game - The Washington Post — # Japan waits on star forward Mitoma's fitness for World Cup after injury in Brighton game. Japan coach Hajime Moriyasu has an anxious wait on the fitness of star forward Kaoru Mitoma bef washingtonpost.com · Mon, 11 May 2026 11:13:17 GMT
Agent scorelines
- 1–1 18%
- 1–0 16%
- 0–1 14%
- 0–0 14%
- 2–1 12%
- 1–2 10%
generated 2026-06-14
Last 5 — NED
-0.42 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #51
- LIT #138 +0.1
- NOR #19 +1.0
- ECU #17 -0.8
- ALG #29 -2.2
- UZB #54 +0.6
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 8
Last 5 — JPN
+1.28 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #47
- GHA #59 +0.8
- BOL #74 +0.6
- SCO #39 +1.5
- ENG #4 +2.4
- ICE #61 +0.7
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 6
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2013-11-16 Netherlands 2–2 Japan
- 2010-06-19 Netherlands 1–0 Japan
- 2009-09-05 Netherlands 3–0 Japan
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.6
9.2
4.8
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.1
1
12.0
10.5
5.5
2.2
0.8
0.2
0.1
2
8.2
7.1
3.7
1.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
3
4.3
3.8
2.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
2.0
1.7
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NED goals; columns = JPN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.47
NED
1.06
JPN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.