Germany v Spain
The single most-likely pairing for this Semi-finals slot across 10 000 simulations conditioned on results so far — it occurs in 4.2% of them. Early-round slots are fed by dozens of group permutations, so no single matchup dominates; the figure firms as groups resolve. The model's head-to-head read is at a neutral venue.
Who advances from this slot
Conditional win probability for this pairing — knockouts resolve in extra time / penalties when level.
The model's head-to-head (neutral venue)
| Outcome (regulation) | GER win | Draw | ESP win | Likely score | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability | 26.1% | 24.3% | 49.6% | 1–1 | 1.14–1.66 |
Regulation W/D/L from the fitted ratings; a knockout would carry the draw share into extra time and penalties.
Both sides
How they reach this slot
- ▸ Winner · Quarter-finals(GER v MAR)
- ▸ Winner · Quarter-finals(ESP v BEL)
The agent
The agent reads confirmed fixtures, not projected pairings. Its factor-by-factor read, web-search trace, and grade will appear here once the groups resolve and this slot becomes a scheduled knockout match.